Population Dynamics in Southern Europe: A Local-Scale Analysis, 1961–2011

Abstract

Different socioeconomic, historical, political, and cultural factors have influenced long-term settlement patterns and demographic structures in Europe. Southern Europe is considered a relatively homogeneous region as far as settlement characteristics and population dynamics are concerned. Within-country local variability in the spatial distribution of population is high, and inherent differences across countries may outline distinct demographic patterns at regional scale. A comparative, local-scale analysis of population distribution in five countries (Spain, Italy, Croatia, Greece, and Cyprus) over a relatively long time period (1961–2011) contributes to identify latent demographic trends in Mediterranean Europe at the spatial scale of Local Administrative Units (LAU). A spatially-explicit analysis of basic indicators of population density and demographic change allows identification of territorial disparities, reflecting local-scale settlement patterns common to different countries (e.g., population growth along coastal districts). These patterns consolidate a metropolitan hierarchy centered on large—mainly compact—cities and more dispersed conurbations along coastal areas. At the same time, the examined countries present different territorial contexts resulting in distinct population dynamics in turn influenced by internal (e.g., national policies, culture and local identity, class segregation) and exogenous (e.g., economic cycle, urbanization models) factors. A spatially-explicit analysis of demographic trends at local scale may contribute to rethinking urban strategies and adapting spatial planning to heterogeneous socioeconomic contexts across Europe.

An Issue of Scale: The Challenge of Time, Space and Multitude in Sustainability and Geography Education

“…Perhaps it is not even possible to compare rural and urban contexts, not to mention finding useful tools to compare northern and southern countries. The variability in individual countries in spatial population distribution may already be high and differences across countries due to internal reasons can outline distinct demographic patterns at the regional scale [57]. Multiple, non-linear forces shape natural balance and migratory movements in unique ways on different temporal and spatial scales [57].…”

Rural–Urban Gradients and Human Population Dynamics

“…A negative population growth rate in many rural areas of the United States, Canada and Southern Europe is common and contrasts with the general or predominant trend of positive population growth rates in urban areas, in particular, because of the spill-over effect [11,12,25,67,70,71]. In Spain, accessibility change is considered relevant in the rural-urban continuum of municipalities [72].…”

“…Changes in the national total population mask local population changes, particularly if the spatial distribution of the population is very uneven across the country, as is common by population concentration in urban areas. In fact, most of the territory of some Southern European countries shows population decline, i.e., negative growth rate at the local level [25], regardless of the trend of change in population size nationwide.…”

“…It is difficult to make comparisons on trends of change in population size and ascertain driving factors [30]. Since 1961 to 2011, local population size changes in Southern Europe was linked to migration and ageing [31], and to land-use and socioeconomic changes related to urbanization processes and rural abandonment [25]. Understanding population changes are quite often conditioned by a restrictive study scope, be it a territory or region of relatively small extension, or a specific category of territory (for example, urban, metropolitan or rural areas).…”

Urban Growth and Long-Term Transformations in Spanish Cities Since the Mid-Nineteenth Century: A Methodology to Determine Changes in Urban Density

“…In more general terms, researchers have also paid attention to the correlation between the rural environment and the distribution of population [21]. Other studies, more based on demographic data, have analysed interdependence and the formation of metropolitan subcentres [22,23]. All of these studies have mainly focused on the period after 1960.…”