Population dynamics under climate change: persistence criterion and effects of fluctuations

Shen, Wenxian; Shen, Zhongwei; Xue, Shuwen; Zhou, Di

doi:10.1007/s00285-022-01728-0

Cited by 9 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 40 publications

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“…Our moving-habitat model predicts that if a species is already close to extinction due to the average effects of climate change, then fluctuations will be detrimental and push it over the edge; see also Shen et al (2022). This result is consistent with the long-standing expectation that extinction rates increase with temporal environmental fluctuations (Schreiber, 2010).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 81%

“…As we increase the amplitude (A), the dominant eigenvalue decreases until, at some critical amplitude, A*, the dominant eigenvalue equalled one, and the population cannot persist for any values A > A* (Figure 2). Hence, in both scenarios and independent of the period, increasing fluctuations decrease population persistence, which is consistent with the result for constant niche size by Shen et al (2022).…”

Section: R E Su Lt S Population Persistencesupporting

confidence: 89%

“…Such fluctuations arise from random climatic conditions and large-scale weather patterns such as El Niño, but also from topography and landscape features, for example when larger plateaus are located along mountain slopes so that the area of the niche increases when the plateau is included (see Supporting Information). We are only aware of one theoretical study on this issue: Shen et al (2022) demonstrate that when the niche size is constant and the location fluctuates periodically around the mean shift speed, then population persistence decreases with the amplitude of fluctuations. Our simulations here confirm this result and, in addition, show that population abundance may be highest at intermediate fluctuations.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…temperature, precipitation) affect populations, the effects of fluctuations around these average changes are much less understood (Thornton et al, 2014). Future expected locations of a fundamental thermal niche are available and utilized, for example in species distribution models (Leroux et al, 2013), but fluctuations are rarely considered (Benning et al, 2022;Holt et al, 2022;Rafajlović et al, 2022;Shen et al, 2022). Populations experience extinction debt and colonization credit as fluctuating in space and time.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate change fluctuations can increase population abundance and range size

MacDonald,

Lutscher,

Bourgault

2024

Ecology Letters

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Climate change threatens many species by a poleward/upward movement of their thermal niche. While we know that faster movement has stronger impacts, little is known on how fluctuations of niche movement affect population outcomes. Environmental fluctuations often affect populations negatively, but theory and experiments have revealed some positive effects. We study how fluctuations around the average speed of the niche impact a species' persistence, abundance and realized niche width under climate change. We find that the outcome depends on how fluctuations manifest and what the relative time scale of population growth and climate fluctuations are. When populations are close to extinction with the average speed, fluctuations around this average accelerate population decline. However, populations not yet close to extinction can increase in abundance and/or realized niche width from such fluctuations. Long‐lived species increase more when their niche size remains constant, short‐lived species increase more when their niche size varies.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 81%

Section: R E Su Lt S Population Persistencesupporting

confidence: 89%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Climate change fluctuations can increase population abundance and range size

MacDonald,

Lutscher,

Bourgault

2024

Ecology Letters

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Well-posedness of Keller–Segel systems on compact metric graphs

Shemtaga,

Shen,

Sukhtaiev

2024

J. Evol. Equ.

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Chemotaxis phenomena govern the directed movement of microorganisms in response to chemical stimuli. In this paper, we investigate two Keller–Segel systems of reaction–advection–diffusion equations modeling chemotaxis on thin networks. The distinction between two systems is driven by the rate of diffusion of the chemo-attractant. The intermediate rate of diffusion is modeled by a coupled pair of parabolic equations, while the rapid rate is described by a parabolic equation coupled with an elliptic one. Assuming the polynomial rate of growth of the chemotaxis sensitivity coefficient, we prove local well-posedness of both systems on compact metric graphs, and, in particular, prove existence of unique classical solutions. This is achieved by constructing sufficiently regular mild solutions via analytic semigroup methods and combinatorial description of the heat kernel on metric graphs. The regularity of mild solutions is shown by applying abstract semigroup results to semi-linear parabolic equations on compact graphs. In addition, for logistic-type Keller–Segel systems we prove global well-posedness and, in some special cases, global uniform boundedness of solutions.

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A Free Boundary Model for Mosquitoes with Conditional Dispersal in a Globally Unfavorable Environment Induced by Climate Warming

2023

J Dyn Diff Equat

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Population dynamics under climate change: persistence criterion and effects of fluctuations

Cited by 9 publications

References 40 publications

Climate change fluctuations can increase population abundance and range size

Climate change fluctuations can increase population abundance and range size

Well-posedness of Keller–Segel systems on compact metric graphs

A Free Boundary Model for Mosquitoes with Conditional Dispersal in a Globally Unfavorable Environment Induced by Climate Warming

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