Population Variability and Heat Bias Prediction in a Tropical Country, Nigeria, From 2006 to 2036

Abstract

This research explores population variability and heat bias prediction in a tropical country, Nigeria from 2006 to 2036. Data were generated from the projections of the National Population Commission (NPC) using the population mathematical model for heat bias data. With national population growth rate of 2.67%, Nigeria recorded heat bias of 60C in 2016, 6.1oC in 2026 and 6.20C in 2036 as well as 0.10C decadal variation indicating that it has exceeded the 0.5-0.250C standard comfort threshold. The analytical results show that there is a positive association between population density and heat bias across the states of Nigeria with greater effects in states such as Lagos, Anambra, Imo, Abia, Akwa Ibom Ekiti, Rivers, Osun and Ebonyi due to the high concentration of people in their limited land mass. And more of the eastern states of Nigeria will have much effect of the heat bias due to their high population density. It shows that land mass does not have any association with heat bias and will likely be influenced by land modification and atmospheric characteristics. Heat wave could result to death of people; therefore, national planners should implement environmental, health and land-use management strategies with immediate action in order to make Nigeria a safe place to live.

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