Population vulnerability models for asteroid impact risk assessment

Abstract

An asteroid impact is a low probability event with potentially devastating consequences. The Asteroid Risk Mitigation Optimization and Research (ARMOR) software tool calculates whether a colliding asteroid experiences an airburst or surface impact and calculates effect severity as well as reach on the global map. To calculate the consequences of an impact in terms of loss of human life, new vulnerability models are derived that connect the severity of seven impact effects (strong winds, overpressure shockwave, thermal radiation, seismic shaking, ejecta deposition, cratering, and tsunamis) with lethality to human populations. With the new vulnerability models, ARMOR estimates casualties of an impact under consideration of the local population and geography. The presented algorithms and models are employed in two case studies to estimate total casualties as well as the damage contribution of each impact effect. The case studies highlight that aerothermal effects are most harmful except for deep water impacts, where tsunamis are the dominant hazard. Continental shelves serve a protective function against the tsunami hazard caused by impactors on the shelf. Furthermore, the calculation of impact consequences facilitates asteroid risk estimation to better characterize a given threat, and the concept of risk as well as its applicability to the asteroid impact scenario are presented.

Asteroid impact effects and their immediate hazards for human populations

“…However, the high impactor count simulations performed here prohibited the use of numerically intensive codes. A suitable tsunami propagation model is presented in Rumpf et al [2017], which utilizes ray tracing to determine affected RUMPF ET AL.…”

“…However, the high impactor count simulations performed here prohibited the use of numerically intensive codes. A suitable tsunami propagation model is presented in Rumpf et al [2017], which utilizes ray tracing to determine affected coastlines on the global map depending on the impact location and calculates local coastal inundation based on bathymetry as well as topography data [Patterson and U.S. National Park Service, 2015].…”

Kosmischer Steinschlag

“…Die Schadensfläche ist vergleichbar mit den Ausmaßen des Großraumes London mit 8,7 Millionen Einwohnern. Die Konsequenzen eines solchen – noch vergleichsweise kleinen – Asteroideinschlages über dicht bewohntem Gebiet wären katastrophal; ähnliche Fälle sind in Tabelle 7 in berechnet.…”

“… Bevölkerungsdichte Weltbevölkerung mit Stand 2015. Die Farbkodierung spiegelt die Bevölkerungszahl pro Kartenzelle (etwa 4,6 x 4,6 km 2 ) auf einer logarithmischen Skala mit Basis 10 wider . …”

“…Daten von Kernwaffenexplosionen sind besonders informativ, weil die freigesetzte Energie am ehesten an die Energielevel eines Asteroideneinschlags heranreichen (Abbildung ), auch wenn große Asteroideneinschläge weitaus gewaltiger als Atombombenexplosionen sein können. Die Folgen der Atombombenabwürfe über Hiroshima und Nagasaki sind hierin berücksichtigt, aber auch andere Datenquellen zum Beispiel aus Tierversuchen und militärischen Tests mit anderen starken Explosionen fließen ein .…”