Portrait of the Decarbonization and Renewables Penetration in Oman’s Energy Mix, Motivated by Oman’s National Green Hydrogen Plan

Abstract

The aim of this study is to quantitatively describe the anticipated change in the energy mix of the Sultanate of Oman (Oman) as the country moves forward in its national plan for green hydrogen, in order to become a global producer and exporter. This aim is achieved by curating recent data about energy projects in Oman that are either operating or planned (in a construction or pre-construction stage). Then, these data are processed further to extract useful insights about how the energy mix would change if the planned projects are realized and added to the operating ones. This reveals the serious commitment of the country to accomplish its national plan for green hydrogen (GH), where the green hydrogen production ambition for 2030 is about 1.125 million tons per annum (Mtpa), using a renewable energy capacity of approximately 18 GW. This ambition increases to about 3.5 Mtpa with approximately 70 GW of renewables in 2040, and increases further to about 8 Mtpa with approximately 180 GW of renewables in 2050. As a portrait of Oman’s energy mix with the assumption of successfully completing all planned energy projects, we found that the country is expected to have a total capacity of 83.1271 GW, with the share of renewables (solar and wind) reaching 83.133% (as compared to 15.0711 GW with an 8.907% renewables share for operating projects). Nearly all (precisely 99.571%) of the 68.0560 GW planned national energy capacity additions are based on solar or wind energy, while the traditional oil–gas energy is gradually phased out. Green hydrogen production dominates this surge in renewables penetration within the Omani energy mix, with 84.659% of the planned 34.3140 GW solar capacity additions linked with green hydrogen production, for operating water electrolyzers. Similarly, 98.804% of the planned 33.4500 GW wind capacity additions are linked with green hydrogen production.