Pos-322 Inside Ckd: Projecting the Future Burden of Chronic Kidney Disease in the Americas and the Asia-Pacific Region Using Microsimulation Modelling

Abstract

life. Anemia is a common complication of CKD that may occur with, and increases with, disease progression. Mathematical models based on robust epidemiological and clinical data are a useful way to predict the future burden of disease; this is important for the planning of health services. This study reports a microsimulation model, Inside ANEMIA of CKD, that projects the epidemiological burden of anemia of CKD up to 2025 in Canada. Methods: A virtual cohort representing the Canadian population was created, using national demographic statistics, within the Inside ANEMIA of CKD microsimulation model framework. Virtual individuals were ascribed an age-sex stratified CKD status (defined by estimated glomerular filtration rate and albuminuria levels, in accordance with international guidelines) and anemia status (defined by hemoglobin level as mild, moderate or severe, in accordance with WHO criteria). Key co-morbidities were also assigned, reflecting countryspecific population statistics. Canadian demographics and epidemiological data were drawn from Statistics Canada and a provincial renal database. Incidence rates for cardiovascular complications were drawn from the literature. Results: Preliminary results indicate that the overall prevalence of CKD in Canada is projected to increase by an absolute rate of 1% from 2020 to 2025, irrespective of population growth. The number of individuals with anemia of CKD is estimated to increase from 1.8 to 2.7 million cases by 2025. A 16% increase is projected for patients with moderate to severe anemia of CKD by 2025. The incidence of cardiovascular complications in patients with all levels of anemia of CKD is expected to increase by 2025 as follows: 28% increase in heart failure and a 20% increase in myocardial infarction events.Conclusions: Inside ANEMIA of CKD is the first microsimulation model to project the epidemiological burden of anemia attributable to CKD in Canada. As more individuals are affected by anemia of CKD over the next five years, co-morbidities such as cardiovascular disease will increase in parallel. Implementing healthcare policies that are aimed at identifying and proactively managing patients with anemia of CKD may reduce this substantial healthcare burden.

Investigating the global prevalence and consequences of undiagnosed stage 3 chronic kidney disease: methods and rationale for the REVEAL-CKD study

“…The Global Burden of Disease study showed that, between 1990 and 2016, the global prevalence of CKD increased by approximately one-third, from 2804 per 100 000 persons to 3733 per 100 000 persons [ 3 ]. Country-specific microsimulations also project that the overall prevalence of CKD and renal replacement therapy will continue to increase from 2021 to 2026 [ 4 ]. This rising prevalence is related to aging populations, increased prevalence of CKD-associated risk factors including type 2 diabetes (T2D) and hypertension, and improved detection [ 5 ].…”