Background and ObjectivesDisease-modifying treatments (DMTs) such as gene therapy are currently under investigation as a potential treatment for Huntington disease (HD). Our objective was to estimate the longterm natural history of HD progression and explore the potential efficacy impacts and value of a hypothetical DMT using a decision-analytic modeling framework.
MethodsWe developed a health state transition model that separately analyzed 40-year-old individuals with prefunctional decline (PFD, HD Integrated Staging System [HD-ISS] stage <3, total functional score [TFC] 13), active functional decline Shoulson and Fahn category 1 (SF1, HD-ISS stage 3, TFC 13-11), and SF2 (HD-ISS stage 3, TFC 10-7). Three-year outcomes from the TRACK-HD longitudinal study were linearly extrapolated to estimate the long-term health outcomes and costs of each population. For PFD individuals, we used the HD-ISS to predict the onset of functional decline. HD costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were estimated over a lifetime horizon by applying health state-specific costs and utilities derived from a related HD burden-of-illness study. We then estimated the long-term health impacts of hypothetical DMTs that slowed or delayed onset of functional decline. We conducted sensitivity analyses to assess model uncertainties.
ResultsThe expected life years for 40-year-old PFD, SF1, and SF2 populations were 20.46 (95% credible range [