Possibilistic approach for consideration of uncertainties to estimate structural capacity of ageing cast iron water mains

Tesfamariam, Solomon; Rajani, Balvant; Sadiq, Rehan

doi:10.1139/l06-042

Cited by 51 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…In contrast, yield strength is used to describe failure of ductile materials like those in ductile iron mains. Two specific failure criteria (theories) are applicable to cast iron, namely, in-plane (ip) and bi-axial distortion energy (de) [5]. Only the distortion energy criterion is discussed here since the predominant stresses on small diameter mains are biaxial as opposed to in-plane stresses in large diameter mains.…”

Section: Failure Theoriesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The two-phase (in the first phase a rapid exponential pit growth and in the second a slow linear growth) model proposed by Rajani et al [11] is used here to estimate time to failure since it accommodates the self-inhibiting process discussed earlier: (5) ) 1 ( were selected based on observations that through (full penetration) corrosion pits in small diameter cast iron mains can occur as early as 40 years (in very high corrosivity soils) and as late as 100 to 120 years or never (in very low corrosivity soils) as depicted in Fig. 2.…”

Section: Corrosion Estimatesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These dual measures can be interpreted within the Dempster-Shafer framework as plausibility and belief (certainty or surety) [19]. A complete discussion on why and how fuzzy set theory is used to incorporate uncertainties in the pipe-soil interaction model is explained in [5].…”

Section: Uncertainty Analysis and Its Integration With Pipe-soil Intementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Rajani et al [3] and Rajani and Tesfamariam [4] have developed a Winkler-type pipe-soil interaction (WPSI) model that accounts for most of the factors identified earlier as the predominant contributors to pipe failure. Tesfamariam et al [5] have recently transformed these models into a possibilistic framework to incorporate the uncertainties discussed earlier. This paper describes further development of this fuzzy based model to integrate corrosion models with the remaining wall thickness or pit geometry measurements and estimate the time to failure.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Axial, flexural and circumferential stress responses obtained from these models were consolidated with the previously reported ( [3], [6]) responses, to establish an overall behaviour of buried water mains under the influence of earth and live loads, water pressure, temperature differential, unsupported length and pipe-soil interaction. Tesfamariam et al [5] fuzzified these WPSI models to account for (a) uncertainties present in the input data and model parameters, and (b) failure modes using well accepted failure criteria for cast iron to determine the fuzzy factor of safety. Only sufficient details on the developed model and failure criteria for cast iron are given here to illustrate the extension of the model to include corrosion analysis of cast iron mains.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Estimating time to failure of cast-iron water mains

Rajani

Tesfamariam

2007

Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers - Water Manag

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/npsi/ctrl?lang=en http://nparc.cisti-icist.nrc-cnrc.gc.ca/npsi/ctrl?lang=fr Access and use of this website and the material on it are subject to the Terms and Conditions set forth at http://nparc.cisti-icist.nrc-cnrc.gc.ca/npsi/jsp/nparc_cp.jsp?lang=en NRC Publications Archive Archives des publications du CNRCThis publication could be one of several versions: author's original, accepted manuscript or the publisher's version. / La version de cette publication peut être l'une des suivantes : la version prépublication de l'auteur, la version acceptée du manuscrit ou la version de l'éditeur. For the publisher's version, please access the DOI link below./ Pour consulter la version de l'éditeur, utilisez le lien DOI ci-dessous.http://dx.doi.org/10. 1680/wama.2007.160.2.83 Water Management, 160, 2, pp. 83-88, 2007-06-01 Estimating time to failure of cast-iron water mains Rajani, B. B.; Tesfamariam, S.http://irc.nrc-cnrc.gc.ca Estimating time to failure of cast-iron water mains NRCC-49676Rajani, B.; Tesfamariam, S.A version of this document is published in / Une version de ce document se trouve dans: Water Management, v. 160, no. 2, June 2007, pp. 83-88 doi: 10.1680/wama.2007 The material in this document is covered by the provisions of the Copyright Act, by Canadian laws, policies, regulations and international agreements. Such provisions serve to identify the information source and, in specific instances, to prohibit reproduction of materials without written permission. For more information visit http://laws.justice.gc.ca/en/showtdm/cs/C-42Les renseignements dans ce document sont protégés par la Loi sur le droit d'auteur, par les lois, les politiques et les règlements du Canada et des accords internationaux. Ces dispositions permettent d'identifier la source de l'information et, dans certains cas, d'interdire la copie de documents sans permission écrite. Pour obtenir de plus amples renseignements : http://lois.justice.gc.ca/fr/showtdm/cs/C-42 In this paper, corrosion models and a previously developed analytical model based onWinkler-type pipe-soil interaction are used to estimate time to failure. Since available data are insufficient to establish credible probability distributions, uncertainties in the input data/parameters are handled using possibility theory and fuzzy arithmetic. Sensitivity analyses are carried out to identify the critical data/parameters that merit further investigation.

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Section: Failure Theoriesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Corrosion Estimatesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Uncertainty Analysis and Its Integration With Pipe-soil Intementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Estimating time to failure of cast-iron water mains

Rajani

Tesfamariam

2007

Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers - Water Manag

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Pipeline Failure and Deterioration Models

Kabir¹,

Tesfamariam²,

Sadiq³

2019

Encyclopedia of Water

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The utility managers and other authorities rely on location‐specific pipeline failure information to develop and implement long‐ and short‐term management plans. The pipeline failure or deterioration depends on multiple pipe dependent, time‐dependent, and pipe and time‐dependent factors. For this, substantial efforts have been made to develop pipeline failure or deterioration prediction models using different statistical models like regression‐based, survival analysis‐based, and Bayesian inference‐based models. The performance of these models depends significantly on the quantity and quality of available data. Most prediction models focus on larger utilities where sufficient amount of pipeline failure and other related information is available. Small and medium‐size utilities often suffer due to technical and financial resource shortages and data scarcity. It is essential to consider model uncertainties for pipeline failure or deterioration prediction model development. In this study, a brief review of existing regression‐based, survival analysis‐based, and Bayesian inference‐based pipeline failure prediction models are presented. To demonstrate the applicability of different pipeline failure and deterioration prediction models, the pipeline failure data of the City of Calgary is considered.

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Water Infrastructure and Asset Management

Kabir¹,

Tesfamariam²,

Sadiq³

2019

Encyclopedia of Water

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Health, safety, and economic prosperity of the citizens of any country are ensured with services provided by core public infrastructures such as water, roads, transit, bridges, and wastewater. The water infrastructures are linear systems, among the most important and expensive municipal infrastructure assets. Maintaining integrity and reliability of water infrastructures is the primary goal of water utilities, governmental agencies, and other stakeholders. It has been quite challenging to maintain the integrity and reliability of water infrastructures because of the aging, aggressive environmental factors, climate change, improper maintenance and renewal, and resource shortages. In this article, the asset management framework for the water infrastructures has been discussed. The main objective of the asset management framework is to provide a desired level of service at a minimum cost. The asset management framework will provide the water utility with the capacity to make informed decisions based on the current and anticipated future performance of the asset. This framework will also help the water utility to improve strategic, tactical, and operational planning‐level decisions considering different dimensions of analysis such as performance, risk, and cost analysis.

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Possibilistic approach for consideration of uncertainties to estimate structural capacity of ageing cast iron water mains

Cited by 51 publications

References 21 publications

Estimating time to failure of cast-iron water mains

Estimating time to failure of cast-iron water mains

Pipeline Failure and Deterioration Models

Water Infrastructure and Asset Management

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