Possible association between Indian monsoon rainfall and solar activity

Bhattacharyya, Subarna; Narasimha, R.

doi:10.1029/2004gl021044

Cited by 75 publications

(67 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…Lal et al, (2001) concluded that annual mean area-averaged surface warming over the Indian subcontinent to range between 3.5°C and 5.5°C over the region during 2080s, while the DEFRA (2005) suggested that for a warming of 2°C, the yields of both rice and wheat will fall in most places, with the beneficial effect of increased CO 2 being more than offset by the temperature changes over India; similar results have been found for soybean (Mall et al, 2004). Next Battacharya and Narasimha (2005) studied the possible association between Indian monsoon rainfall and solar activity. Ashrit et al, (2005) investigated the impact of anthropogenic climate changes on the Indian summer monsoon and the ENSO-monsoon teleconnection.…”

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confidence: 84%

Impact of Global Warming on Tropical Cyclones and Monsoons

Kailasam¹,

Rao²

2010

Global Warming

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mentioning

confidence: 84%

Impact of Global Warming on Tropical Cyclones and Monsoons

Kailasam¹,

Rao²

2010

Global Warming

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“…Kodera 2004) and from modern observational data (e.g. Mehta & Lau 1997;Bhattacharyya & Narasimha 2005;Maitra et al 2014;Chaudhuri et al 2015). However, a mechanism which could account for the reported relationships is unclear, although there are several possibilities: broadly, these mechanisms include so-called top-down solar UV irradiance effects, bottom-up total solar irradiance effects and relationships between atmospheric ionisation from the cosmic ray (CR) flux to aerosols and clouds (Gray et al 2010).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Can Open Science save us from a solar-driven monsoon?

Laken

2016

J. Space Weather Space Clim.

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Numerous studies have been published claiming strong solar influences on the Earth's weather and climate, many of which include documented errors and false-positives, yet are still frequently used to substantiate arguments of global warming denial. Recently, Badruddin & Aslam (2015) reported a highly significant relationship between the Indian monsoon and the cosmic ray flux. They found strong and opposing linear trends in the cosmic ray flux during composites of the strongest and weakest monsoons since 1964, and concluded that this relationship is causal. They further speculated that it could apply across the entire tropical and sub-tropical belt and be of global importance. However, examining the original data reveals the cause of this false-positive: an assumption that the data's underlying distribution was Gaussian. Instead, due to the manner in which the composite samples were constructed, the correlations were biased towards high values. Incorrect or problematic statistical analyses such as this are typical in the field of solar-terrestrial studies, and consequently false-positives are frequently published. However, the widespread adoption of Open Science approaches, placing an emphasis on reproducible open-source analyses as demonstrated in this work, could remedy the situation.

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“…Among the studies that examined multidecadal variations in Indian monsoon, some have investigated and suggested the multidecadal variation in the solar irradiance as a possible cause [e.g., Mehta and Lau, 1997;Neff et al, 2001;Agnihotri et al, 2002;Burns et al, 2002;Fleitmann et al, 2003;Kodera, 2004;Bhattacharyya and Narasimha, 2005;Berkelhammer et al, 2010]. Many of these studies show that the solar irradiance and monsoon intensity variations have been comparable in phase at decadal-centennial timescales.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Atmospheric circulation processes contributing to a multidecadal variation in reconstructed and modeled Indian monsoon precipitation

2015

JGR Atmospheres

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An analysis of the recently reconstructed gridded May-September total precipitation in the Indian monsoon region for the past half millennium discloses significant variations at multidecadal timescales. Meanwhile, paleo-climate modeling outputs from the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model 4.0 show similar multidecadal variations in the monsoon precipitation. One of those variations at the frequency of 40-50 years per cycle is examined in this study. Major results show that this variation is a product of the processes in that the meridional gradient of the atmospheric enthalpy is strengthened by radiation loss in the high-latitude and polar region. Driven by this gradient and associated baroclinicity in the atmosphere, more heat/energy is generated in the tropical and subtropical (monsoon) region and transported poleward. This transport relaxes the meridional enthalpy gradient and, subsequently, the need for heat production in the monsoon region. The multidecadal timescale of these processes results from atmospheric circulation-radiation interactions and the inefficiency in generation of kinetic energy from the potential energy in the atmosphere to drive the eddies that transport heat poleward. This inefficiency creates a time delay between the meridional gradient of the enthalpy and the poleward transport. The monsoon precipitation variation lags that in the meridional gradient of enthalpy but leads that of the poleward heat transport. This phase relationship, and underlining chasing process by the transport of heat to the need for it driven by the meridional enthalpy gradient, sustains this multidecadal variation. This mechanism suggests that atmospheric circulation processes can contribute to multidecadal timescale variations. Interactions of these processes with other forcing, such as sea surface temperature or solar irradiance anomalies, can result in resonant or suppressed variations in the Indian monsoon precipitation.

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Possible association between Indian monsoon rainfall and solar activity

Cited by 75 publications

References 19 publications

Impact of Global Warming on Tropical Cyclones and Monsoons

Impact of Global Warming on Tropical Cyclones and Monsoons

Can Open Science save us from a solar-driven monsoon?

Atmospheric circulation processes contributing to a multidecadal variation in reconstructed and modeled Indian monsoon precipitation

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