Post-GFC External Shocks and Indonesian Economic Performance

Abstract

The post-GFC era sees slower global growth and a substantial Chinese slowdown, unusually combined with lower investment financing costs, and with the eventual prospect of a US-led re-tightening of global financial markets. For Indonesia in the medium term, these developments imply a slowing of export growth and a temporary surge in net inward investment incentives. These changes are examined here using a numerical macro model. The results suggest that recent fiscal reform is long-run beneficial and that it will moderate the negative effects of expectations linked to these global events, the formation of which is shown to be an important determinant of performance. Finally, a sensitivity analysis is conducted, mainly on parameters indicating Indonesian openness to trade and finance. Liberal product markets and home investment are shown to offer unambiguous gains in the face of negative external shocks, while openness to external financial flows does not.