Postcraniometric sex and ancestry estimation in South Africa: a validation study

Abstract

With the acceptance of the Daubert criteria as the standards for best practice in forensic anthropological research, more emphasis is being placed on the validation of published methods. Methods, both traditional and novel, need to be validated, adjusted, and refined for optimal performance within forensic anthropological analyses. Recently, a custom postcranial database of modern South Africans was created for use in Fordisc 3.1. Classification accuracies of up to 85% for ancestry estimation and 98% for sex estimation were achieved using a multivariate approach. To measure the external validity and report more realistic performance statistics, an independent sample was tested. The postcrania from 180 black, white, and colored South Africans were measured and classified using the custom postcranial database. A decrease in accuracy was observed for both ancestry estimation (79%) and sex estimation (95%) of the validation sample. When incorporating both sex and ancestry simultaneously, the method achieved 70% accuracy, and 79% accuracy when sex-specific ancestry analyses were run. Classification matrices revealed that postcrania were more likely to misclassify as a result of ancestry rather than sex. While both sex and ancestry influence the size of an individual, sex differences are more marked in the postcranial skeleton and are therefore easier to identify. The external validity of the postcranial database was verified and therefore shown to be a useful tool for forensic casework in South Africa. While the classification rates were slightly lower than the original method, this is expected when a method is generalized.

Analysis of the Accuracy of AncesTrees Software in Ancestry Estimation in Brazilian Identified Sample

“…As of this trial, a rigorous and valid scientific method was required for determination of forensic outcomes in each population based on statistical analysis and known error rates. Hence, population-specific me-thods are better accepted by the scientific and legal communities for being more accurate (Liebenberg et al, 2019).…”

Ancestry Estimation: Advances and Limitations in Forensic Applications

“…Yet, the influence of environmental factors such as climate and its impact in body size and body proportions should be taken into account. 41,42 The femur has been the focus of many studies due to its robusticity (eg). 43 Indexes such as the platymeric index on the femur have been proposed for ancestry estimation 37 with validation studies producing unreliable results 44,45 and thus might not be recommended.…”

Influence of climatic stress on nonmetric sexually dimorphic features of the skull and pelvis

“…These results further suggest that there is a significant difference in sexual dimorphism between North American and South American white and black populations, despite similar ancestral histories. A follow up study of FORDISC 3.1's updated South African databases increased sex estimation accuracies to 98% when using a multivariate approach (Liebenberg et al, 2019). It is necessary to address the specific population methodology since relying on similar ancestral histories without considering the environmental influences on these groups may confound forensic anthropological investigations.…”