Pot and ladle: seat allocation and seat bias under the Jefferson-D'Hondt method

Flis, Jarosław; Słomczyński, Wojciech; Stolicki, Dariusz

doi:10.48550/arxiv.1805.08291

Cited by 1 publication

(2 citation statements)

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“…For proof of the above, see (Flis et al, 2018). Of the above assumptions, A2 and A3 are essentially political in nature, requiring that there be no anomalies in the spatial distribution of party support (such as regionalisms, malapportionment, or large differences in district magnitudes) that cause districtlevel electoral results to diverge from nationwide data.…”

Section: Theoretical Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The "Pot and Ladle" Model of the Jefferson-D'Hondt System. The starting point of our reasoning consists of the "pot and ladle" model of the Jefferson-D'Hondt system, introduced in (Flis et al, 2019) and further elaborated (Flis et al, 2018), which provides the following closed-form formula for estimating seat counts from nationwide vote shares:…”

Section: Theoretical Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A Formal Model of the Relationship between the Number of Parties and the District Magnitude

Boratyn,

Flis,

Słomczyński

et al. 2019

Preprint

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On the basis of a formula for calculating seat shares and natural thresholds in multidistrict elections under the Jefferson-D'Hondt system and a probabilistic model of electoral behavior based on Pólya's urn model, we propose a new model of the relationship between the district magnitude and the number / effective number of relevant parties. We test that model on both electoral results from multiple countries employing the D'Hondt method (relatively small number of elections, but wide diversity of political configurations) and data based on hundreds of Polish local elections (large number of elections, but much higher degree of parameter uniformity). We also explore some applications of the proposed model, demonstrating how it can be used to estimate the potential effects of electoral engineering.

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Section: Theoretical Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Theoretical Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%