Potential changes in the distribution of suitable habitat for Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax) under climate change scenarios

Petatán‐Ramírez, David; Ojeda-Ruíz, Miguel Ángel; Sánchez‐Velásco, Laura; Rivas, David; Reyes‐Bonilla, Héctor; Cruz-Piñón, Gabriela; Morzaria‐Luna, Hem Nalini; Cisneros‐Montemayor, Andrés M.; Cheung, William W. L.; Salvadeo, Christian

doi:10.1016/j.dsr2.2019.07.020

Cited by 13 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 70 publications

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“…Thus, our simulation was less successful at explaining landings at southern ports and unable to distinguish the different trajectories of habitat change for the two subpopulations. If the southern subpopulation also shifts north and contributes more to future catches at the southern ports, then our analysis overestimates the decline in Southern California landings, although projection of the suitable habitat of the southern subpopulation indicates only a subtle poleward range shift (Petatán‐Ramírez et al, 2019). The potential for landings of the southern subpopulation at southern ports, and the uncertainty of these landings in our simulation, highlights the value of continued monitoring of the distribution and landings of the southern subpopulation, and the value of integrating spatially explicit models of both subpopulations.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 90%

The potential impact of a shifting Pacific sardine distribution on U.S. West Coast landings

Smith

Muhling

Sweeney

et al. 2021

Fisheries Oceanography

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Many fish species are shifting spatial distributions in response to climate change, but projecting these shifts and measuring their impact at fine scales are challenging. We present a simulation that projects change in fishery landings due to spatial distribution shifts, by combining regional ocean and biogeochemical models (forced by three earth system models, ESMs: GFDL‐ESM2M, HadGEM2‐ES, IPSL‐CM5A‐MR), correlative models for species distribution and port‐level landings, and a simulation framework which provides realistic values for species abundance and fishery conditions using an historical “reference period”. We demonstrate this approach for the northern subpopulation of Pacific sardine, an iconic commercial species for the U.S. West Coast. We found a northward shift in sardine landings (based on the northern subpopulation's habitat suitability), with projected declines at southern ports (20%–50% decline by 2080) and an increase (up to 50%) or no change at northern ports, and this was consistent across the three ESMs. Total sardine landings were more uncertain, with HadGEM2 indicating a 20% decline from 2000 to 15 levels by 2070 (a rate of 170 mt/y), IPSL a 10% increase (115 mt/y), and GFDL an 15% increase by the year ~2050 followed by a sharp decrease. The ESMs also differed in their projected change to the timing of the fishing season and frequency of fishery closures. Our simulation also identified key constraints on future landings that can be targeted by more tactical assessment; these included the seasonality of quota allocation and the abundance of other species in the catch portfolio.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 90%

The potential impact of a shifting Pacific sardine distribution on U.S. West Coast landings

Smith

Muhling

Sweeney

et al. 2021

Fisheries Oceanography

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“…However, it would increase in the Bay of Biscay, which is north of the Iberian-Atlantic (Shchepetkin and McWilliams, 2005). The Japanese and Pacific sardines were also expected to expand northward with warming and the latter's suitable habitat was expected to decrease by 50% in the Gulf of California and Mexican Northwest (Okunishi et al, 2012;Cheung et al, 2015;Petatán-Ramírez et al, 2019).…”

Section: Impact Of Climate Change On Japanese Anchovy Cpue In Wintermentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Climate Change on Wintering Ground of Japanese Anchovy (Engraulis japonicus) Using Marine Geospatial Statistics

Liu

Alabia

et al. 2020

Front. Mar. Sci.

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The distribution and fluctuations in abundance of small pelagic species such as anchovy are largely affected by climate change. We hypothesized that the future projected rise in temperature will result to a northward shift of Japanese anchovy (Engraulis japonicus) habitat and a subsequent increase in relative abundance. To test this hypothesis, we explored the link between Japanese anchovy abundance and environmental conditions using machine-learning and statistical models. The models were fitted with catch per unit effort (CPUE) as the response variable and remotely sensed data of sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface chlorophyll-a (Chl-a), assimilated information of sea surface salinity (SSS), meridional and zonal ocean currents, and depth as environmental covariates. Our results showed that the abundance of E. japonicus was significantly influenced by environmental factors. In particular, salinity front and SST highlight strong relationships with winter CPUE distribution. Based on these models, the results reinforced our hypothesis and showed that the warming ocean will drive a substantial shift in Japanese anchovy habitat in the China seas. SST and CPUE showed negative correlations with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index. These findings underpin ramifications of the climate-driven habitat shift of small pelagic fish species on the regional marine ecosystem in the China seas.

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“…Aggregation sites for whale sharks in the Gulf of California were located near artisanal and industrial fishing areas. In this regard, the effects of invasive anthropogenic activities should be considered, as our results evidenced a high preference of this species to coastal and shallow areas where some fishing resources such as shrimp, sardines or other elasmobranchs occurs (Lluch‐Cota et al ., 2007; Petatán‐Ramírez et al ., 2019). Although the rate of interactions between the whale sharks and fisheries has not been studied, several affectations such as lacerations and even the death of some individuals have been reported (Whitehead et al ., 2019b,c).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Habitat suitability ofRhincodon typusin three localities of the Gulf of California: Environmental drivers of seasonal aggregations

Petatán‐Ramírez

Whitehead

Guerrero-Izquierdo

et al. 2020

Journal of Fish Biology

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The whale shark is an endangered species that usually feeds in coastal areas of highly productive seas such as the Gulf of California, Mexico. This study aims to describe the effect of sea surface temperature, chlorophyll a, bathymetry and slope on the habitat suitability of whale sharks in three important aggregation sites of the Gulf of California. A total of 2396 records of occurrence of whale sharks were obtained from international databases and scientific literature between 1996 and 2018. These records were used for the creation of a species distribution model using MaxEnt for each of the three aggregation sites. The concentration of chlorophyll a explained 71% of the habitat suitability, followed by bathymetry and slope with a combined 17%, and sea surface temperature constituting 10% of the model. Habitat suitability was related to areas where nontargeted fisheries may impact whale sharks through bycatch, entanglement and ship strikes. The implications for the conservation of whale sharks should be considered for management decisions in terms of marine protected areas, fishing refugees or bans, and other regulations regarding fisheries activities.

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Potential changes in the distribution of suitable habitat for Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax) under climate change scenarios

Cited by 13 publications

References 70 publications

The potential impact of a shifting Pacific sardine distribution on U.S. West Coast landings

The potential impact of a shifting Pacific sardine distribution on U.S. West Coast landings

Impact of Climate Change on Wintering Ground of Japanese Anchovy (Engraulis japonicus) Using Marine Geospatial Statistics

Habitat suitability ofRhincodon typusin three localities of the Gulf of California: Environmental drivers of seasonal aggregations

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