Potential climate change effects on warm-season livestock production in the Great Plains

Abstract

Climate changes suggested by some global climate models (GCM) may impact the economic viability of livestock production systems in the Great Plains region of the United States.Increased ambient temperatures lead to depressed voluntary feed intake (VFI), reduced weight gains, and lower milk production during summer periods. Animals are somewhat able to adapt to higher temperatures with prolonged exposure but production losses will occur in response to higher temperature events. This report presents the potential impacts of climatic change on the VFI of swine and confined beef cattle and the VFI and milk production of dairy cattle. Animal production-response algorithms from research results are combined with climatological data and GCM output to assess potential impacts. Algorithms used are based on the most recent National Research Council publications on the Nutrient Requirements of Swine, Beef Cattle and DairyCattle and related publications. Geographic variations in the relative change in temperature and other climate variables associated with two GCM scenarios are identified for the Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas region and linked to potential impacts on livestock production. Detailed analyses project economic losses for these livestock classes to increase in most areas during the summer period, in some cases quite markedly. Exploration of the effects of climate changes on livestock should allow producers to adjust management strategies to reduce the potential economic losses due to environmental changes.

Future consequences and challenges for dairy cow production systems arising from climate change in Central Europe – a review

“…Ignoring practitioners' realities and attitudes, however, can mean missing important impacts as well as adaptation measures. Studies providing data on the role of adaptation to the climate change indicate that the economic impact tend to be neutral or even positive if adaptation is included (Parsons et al, 2001;Hossel, 2002;Fitzgerald et al, 2009), whereas the impact is negative when no adaptation is included (Leva et al, 1996;Mader et al, 2009;Moran et al, 2009;Walter and Lö pmeier, 2010). Similar results can be observed in cropping studies (Kaiser et al, 1993;Segerson and Dixon, 1999).…”

Land Use and Climate Change

“…For example, Mu, McCarl and Wein (2012) find an inverted-U shape between summer precipitation and US cattle stocking rates and that cattle stocking rates decrease with increases in the summer temperature and humidity index (THI). Mader et al (2009) find that under increased CO2 concentration scenarios, the west side of the U.S. Corn Belt encounters productivity losses for swine of as much as 22.4%, while in the east side, losses of over 70% occur. For beef, they find increasing temperature is beneficial to beef producers in the western Corn Belt but not in the northwest and southeast regions.…”

Adaptation in Agriculture

“…It also has indirect effects via alterations in quality of feed crop and forage [29][30][31]. High temperature and humidity has been found to threaten the health, immune function, and mortality of livestock [30,31].…”