Potential climate change impacts on temperate forest ecosystem processes

Peters, Emily B.; Wythers, Kirk R.; Zhang, Shuxia; Bradford, John B.

doi:10.1139/cjfr-2013-0013

Cited by 41 publications

(29 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…Using a process model and climate scenario projections, Peters et al (2013) predicted that average regional productivity in forests in the Great Lakes region of North America could increase from 67 to 142 %, runoff could potentially increase from 2 to 22 % and net N mineralization from 10 to 12 %. Increased productivity was almost entirely driven by potential CO 2 fertilization effects, rather than by increased temperature or changing precipitation.…”

Section: Ecosystem Responses To Climatementioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change impacts and adaptation in forest management: a review

Keenan

2015

Annals of Forest Science

478

303

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Abstract& Key message Adaptation of forest management to climate change requires an understanding of the effects of climate on forests, industries and communities; prediction of how these effects might change over time; and incorporation of this knowledge into management decisions. This requires multiple forms of knowledge and new approaches to forest management decisions. Partnerships that integrate researchers from multiple disciplines with forest managers and local actors can build a shared understanding of future challenges and facilitate improved decision making in the face of climate change.

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Section: Ecosystem Responses To Climatementioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change impacts and adaptation in forest management: a review

Keenan

2015

Annals of Forest Science

478

303

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“…The PnET-CN model is an ecosystem-level process model that simulates carbon, water, and nitrogen dynamics in forests over time (Aber et al 199, 2001;Ollinger et al 200;Peters et al 2013). This model accounts for physiological and biogeochemical feedbacks, which allows carbon, water, and nitrogen cycles to interact with each other.…”

Section: Pnet-cnmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Output from PnET-CN includes many variables related to carbon, water, and nitrogen cycling, including key ecosystem processes such as net primary production, net ecosystem production, evapotranspiration, and nitrogen mineralization. Full information on the PnET-CN simulations used in this assessment, including inputs, methods, and results, can be found in Peters et al (2013).…”

Section: Pnet-cnmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…°F (6.0 °C) results in higher evapotranspiration for forests across the assessment area, which essentially intensifies the effects of the projected decreases in precipitation. (2013) and Peters et al (2013). Positive values indicate that ET is projected to increase relative to available moisture, increasing the potential for forests to be under moisture stress.…”

Section: Evapotranspiration and Precipitation Ratiosmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis for northern Wisconsin and western Upper Michigan: a report from the Northwoods Climate Change Response Framework project

Janowiak¹,

Iverson²,

Mladenoff³

et al. 2014

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Forest ecosystems across the Northwoods will face direct and indirect impacts from a changing climate over the 21st century. This assessment evaluates the vulnerability of forest ecosystems in the Laurentian Mixed Forest Province of northern Wisconsin and western Upper Michigan under a range of future climates. We synthesized and summarized information on the contemporary landscape, provided information on past climate trends, and described a range of projected future climates. This information was used to parameterize and run multiple vegetation impact models, which provided a range of potential vegetative responses to climate. Finally, we brought these results before a multidisciplinary panel of scientists and land managers familiar with the forests of this region to assess ecosystem vulnerability through a formal consensus-based expert elicitation process.The summary of the contemporary landscape identifies major forest trends and stressors currently threatening forests in the region. Observed trends in climate over the past century reveal that precipitation increased in the area, particularly in summer and fall, and that daily maximum temperatures increased, particularly in winter. Projected climate trends for the next 100 years using downscaled global climate model data indicate a potential increase in mean annual temperature of 2 to 9 °F for the assessment area. Projections for precipitation indicate an increase in winter and spring precipitation, and summer and fall precipitation projections vary by scenario. We identified potential impacts on forests by incorporating these future climate projections into three forest impact models (Tree Atlas, LANDIS-II, and PnET-CN). Model projections suggest that northern boreal species such as black spruce, quaking aspen, and paper birch may fare worse under future conditions, but other species may benefit from projected changes in climate. Published literature on climate impacts related to wildfire, invasive species, and forest pests and diseases also contributed to the overall determination of climate change vulnerability. We assessed vulnerability for nine forest communities in the assessment area. The assessment was conducted through a formal elicitation process of 19 science and management experts from across the area, who considered vulnerability in terms of the potential impacts and the adaptive capacity for an individual community. Upland spruce-fir, lowland conifers, aspen-birch, lowland-riparian hardwoods, and red pine forests were determined to be the most vulnerable ecosystems. White pine and oak forests were perceived as less vulnerable to projected changes in climate. These projected changes in climate and the associated impacts and vulnerabilities will have important implications for economically valuable timber species, forestdependent wildlife and plants, recreation, and long-term natural resource planning. ABSTRACT Cover PhotoLake of the Clouds in western Upper Michigan. Photo by Scott Pearson, used with permission.

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“…Process-based modelling is a state-of-the-art technique used in predicting behaviour and future state of ecosystems with respect to environmental conditions [1,2]. A variety of known ecophysiological and geochemical processes are implemented in these models, but continuous model development based on new knowledge is still needed [3,4].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%