Potential distribution of <i>Ocotea odorifera</i> (Vell.) Rohwer in urban areas of Curitiba, Paraná state, Brazil

Abstract

Potential distribution of Ocotea odorifera (Vell.) Rohwer in urban areas of Curitiba, Paraná state, Brazil Distribuição potencial de Ocotea odorifera (Vell.) Rohwer na área urbana de Curitiba, Paraná, Brasil AbstractOcotea odorifera is an endangered tree species, threatened by the urbanization process that occurs in the region of Curitiba, Paraná state, among other factors. Thus, the knowledge about their geographical distribution becomes necessary to plan protected areas that mitigate the effects caused by anthropic pressures on their populations. Therefore, the objective of this research was to develop a model of the potential geographic distribution of Ocotea odorifera and to verify the region of the municipality of Curitiba more relevant to its conservation. First, we georeferenced individuals of the species found in the municipality, while the model of potential distribution of the species was performed using the Maxent ® algorithm, using meteorological and topological data as environmental variables. The Jackknife test indicated the most relevant variables to the model and the Area Under the Curve (AUC) indicated its accuracy. The potential distribution map was superimposed on a shapefile file containing the delimitation of 80 protected green areas with fragments of native vegetation. As a whole, 12 occurrence points of the species were located in seven sites. The map generated by Maxent indicated that the central-northern region of Curitiba presents the highest probability of Ocotea odorifera occurrence, corresponding to 19,550.30 ha. The model explained 96.3% of the species distribution in the study area. The relative contribution and the Jackknife test indicated that the most relevant variable to the model was pedology. In future plantings of the species, the pedology should be considered during its planning, as well as other specific characteristics of the soil at each site.

Potential occurrence of Araucaria angustifolia (Bertol.) Kuntze in the urban forest of Curitiba, Paraná, Brazil

“…Although this is a common species in the Curitiba region, the potential distribution modeling for A. angustifolia indicated that its occurrence is conditioned by specific landscape factors such as topography and pedology. The presence of species individuals in a given location may not necessarily characterize it as the best environment for its development, since individuals may have adapted to less favorable conditions, even if they do not meet all the autecological demands of the species and therefore do not develop as well as possible [18].…”

“…This occurrence probability indicated the environmental adequacy for the species' occurrence [17]. A total of 1,000 combinations were established with 10 repetitions in the cross-validated method, and the radius was adjusted to "-30" due to the work scale [18].…”

“…Verification of the environmental criteria most relevant to the model when used alone and the accuracy estimation were performed through the Jackknife test and the Area Under the Curve (AUC), respectively [18]. Thus, 10 models were generated and the one with the highest AUC values (closer to 1) was chosen [18].…”

“…Verification of the environmental criteria most relevant to the model when used alone and the accuracy estimation were performed through the Jackknife test and the Area Under the Curve (AUC), respectively [18]. Thus, 10 models were generated and the one with the highest AUC values (closer to 1) was chosen [18]. Next, a total of 26 georeferenced points of A. angustifolia collected from GeoEye-1 satellite images with a spatial resolution of 0.5 m from 2016 were used to compose the model.…”

“…Thirteen environmental criteria considered relevant for the species distribution were also used, with a spatial resolution of 30 m [18] (Table 1). All abiotic criteria were previously correlated by Pearson's Correlation to avoid spatial autocorrelation [18].…”