Potential distribution of selected invasive alien plants under current and future climate change scenarios in South Africa

Mengistu, Achamyeleh G.; Tesfuhuney, Weldemichael A.; Woyessa, Yali E.; Steyn, Abraham S.

doi:10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e19867

Cited by 2 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 51 publications

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“…All environmental layers were clipped to the approximate distribution range (15–32°N, 90–125°E) of A. costularis with the same projection system and cell size and then transformed into ASCII format by using ArcGIS v10.2 (ESRI, Redlands, CA, USA). Soil factors and UV‐B variables were assumed to keep constant under past and future periods due to the absence of data (Mengistu et al., 2023 ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Distribution model and prediction of the tree fern Alsophila costularis Baker (Cyatheaceae) in China

Wang,

Li,

et al. 2024

Ecology and Evolution

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Climatic change is a challenge for plant conservation due to plants' limited dispersal abilities. The survival and sustainable development of plants directly depend on the availability of suitable habitats. In this study, we employed an optimized MaxEnt model to evaluate the relative contribution of each environmental variable and predict the suitable habitat for Alsophila costularis under past, current, and future periods, which is an endangered relict tree fern known as a living fossil. For the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and Mid‐Holocene scenarios, we adopted two atmosphere–ocean general circulation models: CCSM4 and MIROC‐ESM. The BCC‐CSM2‐MR model was used for future projections. The results revealed that temperature annual range (Bio7) contributed most to the model construction with an optimal range of 13.74–22.44°C. Species distribution modeling showed that current suitable areas were mainly located in most areas of Yunnan, most areas of Hainan, most areas of Taiwan, southeastern Tibet, southwestern Guizhou, western Guangxi, southern Sichuan, and southern Guangdong, with an area of 35.90 × 104 km2. The suitable habitat area expanded northward in Yunnan from the Last Interglacial to the LGM under the CCSM4 model, while a significant contraction toward southwestern Yunnan was found under the MIROC‐ESM model. Furthermore, the potential distributions during the Mid‐Holocene were more widespread in Yunnan compared to those under current period. It is predicted that in the future, the range will significantly expand to northern Yunnan and western Guizhou. Almost all centroids of suitable habitats were distributed in southeastern Yunnan under different periods. The stable areas were located in southwestern Yunnan in all scenarios. The simulation results could provide a theoretical basis for the formulation of reasonable conservation and management measures to mitigate the effects of future climate change for A. costularis.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…org/ ) (Fick & Hijmans, 2017) Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), including SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5. The SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 separately demonstrate low and high gas emissions, respectively, whereas SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0 represent medium scenarios for gas emission (Riahi et al, 2017) (Mengistu et al, 2023).…”

Section: Extracting Environmental Variablesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Distribution model and prediction of the tree fern Alsophila costularis Baker (Cyatheaceae) in China

Wang,

Li,

et al. 2024

Ecology and Evolution

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Perspective: Home and Away: The bioclimatology of Acacia species in Australia and overseas

Booth

2024

Forest Ecology and Management

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Potential distribution of selected invasive alien plants under current and future climate change scenarios in South Africa

Cited by 2 publications

References 51 publications

Distribution model and prediction of the tree fern Alsophila costularis Baker (Cyatheaceae) in China

Distribution model and prediction of the tree fern Alsophila costularis Baker (Cyatheaceae) in China

Perspective: Home and Away: The bioclimatology of Acacia species in Australia and overseas

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