Potential distribution of the spring ephemeral plant Adonis amurensis in Northeast China under future climate change

Abstract

Adonis amurensis Regel et Radde is an early spring plant in northeastern China that has great ornamental value because it blooms before other plants have sprouted. It has not been used to its full potential due to environmental restrictions on its growth. It will be extremely important for its application to comprehend the possible habitat of A. amurensis and the critical environmental factors controlling its distribution under current and future climatic scenarios. In this work, two climate change scenarios of 2041–2060 and 2081–2100 were utilized to predict the suitable habitat of A. amurensis. The results showed that the suitable habitat was mainly distributed along the Changbai Mountains, with a total area of 303,090 km2, and the potential and high‐potential habitat area were 141,218 and 161,872 km2, respectively. In the future climate scenarios, the suitable habitat of A. amurensis was still distributed along the Changbai Mountains, but the area was reduced. In ssp126 and ssp585 scenarios of 2041–2060 and 2081–2100, the area was reduced by 7.13% and 22.34% and 18.66% and 8.09%, respectively. The reduced suitable habitat was mainly located in central Heilongjiang (southeastern Xiao Xing'an Ling), central Jilin, and northeastern Liaoning. The suitable habitat was significantly influenced by precipitation, mainly affected by annual precipitation, followed by precipitation seasonality, soil surface pH, and slope. The results of this study can serve as empirical support for the artificial cultivation, ecological restoration, and long‐term use of A. amurensis.

Assessment of Climate Change and Land Use/Land Cover Effects on Aralia elata Habitat Suitability in Northeastern China

“…It is important to select appropriate thresholds for transforming the values of the continuous distribution predicted by the model into suitable and unsuitable regions [41]. We categorized suitable habitats into four classes based on distribution site habitat suitability values and normal distribution parameters, µ and δ: unsuitable habitat (0, µ − δ), poorly suitable habitat (µ − δ, µ), moderately suitable habitat (µ, µ + δ), and highly suitable habitat (µ + δ, 1) [42]. Unsuitable habitats are areas that are unfavorable for aralia growth and severely limited by environmental factors; poorly suitable habitats are areas where aralia can grow normally to some extent but that are less suitable; moderately suitable habitats are areas that are more suitable for aralia growth but not as suitable as highly suitable habitats; and highly suitable habitats are areas that are most suitable for aralia growth and where there is no limitation on its growth and development.…”

“…The main factors affecting the survival conditions of aralia as a small tree in the current environment are annual precipitation, seasonality of precipitation, and average diurnal range. These bioclimatic variables also play an important role in the distribution of other plant species in the northeast [42]. This may be due to the large temperature difference and low winter precipitation in the northeast.…”