Potential distribution prediction ofAmaranthus palmeriS. Watson in China under current and future climate scenarios

Abstract

The vicious invasive alien plant Amaranthus palmeri poses a serious threat to ecological security and food security due to its strong adaptability, competitiveness, and herbicide resistance. Predicting its potential habitats under current and future climate change is critical for monitoring and early warning. In this study, we used two sets of climate data, namely, WorldClim1.4 and RCPs (the historical climate data of WorldClim version 1.4 and future climate data of RCPs), WorldClim2.1 and SSPs (the historical climate data of WorldClim version 2.1 and future climate data of SSPs), to analyze the dominant environmental variables affecting the habitat suitability and predict the potential distribution of A. palmeri to climate change in China based on the MaxEnt model. The results show that (i) Temperature has a greater impact on the distribution of A. palmeri . The relative contributions of temperature‐related variables count to 70% or more, and the annual mean temperature (bio1) reached more than 40%. (ii) At present, the potentially suitable area is widely distributed in the central‐east and parts of southwest China, and the high suitable area is focused on the North China Plain. The potential suitable area predicted by WorldClim1.4 and WorldClim2.1 both accounts for about 31% of China's total land area. (iii) Future climate change will expand the suitable habitats to high latitudes and altitudes. The overall suitable area maximum increased to 44.93% under SSPs and 38.91% under RCPs. We conclude that climate change would increase the risk of A. palmeri expanding to high latitudes and altitudes, the results have practical implications for the effective long‐term management in response to the global warming of A. palmeri .

Geographical distribution of two major quarantine fruit flies (Bactrocera minax Enderlein and Bactrocera dorsalis Hendel) in Sichuan Basin based on four SDMs

“…Relevant literature also proves that Maxent could predict the suitable area of species well under both large or small sample conditions ( Xu, Peng & Peng, 2015 ). The Garp model predicts a wide range of highly-suitable area for B. minax and B. dorsalis , which is similar to what other scholars have done in predicting other species ( Wang et al, 2020a ; Zhang et al, 2023 ). This may be due to two reasons: one is that the output type of Garp is boolean, and the result is suitable as long as species shows adaptation somewhere, and another may be due to insufficient repetitive settings; the classification is not obvious.…”

“…Based on the above reasons, the range of suitable area predicted by the Domain model is also large. The Bioclim defines the environmental envelope as the volume of a straight line in Euclidean space and treats each climate axis independently depending on the range, which can lead to ecologically unreasonable predictions ( Zhang et al, 2023 ). Therefore, the Bioclim model is poor in predicting the distribution of B. minax and B. dorsalis .…”

“…The natural break point method was used to classify the predicted results, and the potential distribution was divided into four types of suitable area: the unsuitable area, the lowly-suitable area, the moderately-suitable area, the highly-suitable area ( Zhang et al, 2023 ). In order to avoid over-interpretation the prediction results of the Domain model with natural break point method, the research referenced Carpenter, Gillison & Winter (1993) and combined with the matching degree between the output of Domain and the actual distribution of B. minax and B. dorsalis to adjust the suitable areas predicted by the Domain model.…”

Prediction of Potential Suitable Areas and Priority Protection for Cupressus gigantea on the Tibetan Plateau

“…Notably, simulation results for the Tibetan Plateau have shown significant improvement [ 59 ]. Among all GCMs, the BCC-CSM2-BR climate model developed by the Beijing Climate Centre (BCC) is widely recognized in China and has been extensively utilized for predicting both native and invasive species due to its high reliability [ 61 , 62 , 63 ]. In this study, we selected the BCC-CSM2-BR climate model from CMIP6 to examine the impact of different carbon emission scenarios.…”

Buchanania cochinchinensis (Lour.) M.R. Almedia habitat exhibited robust adaptability to diverse socioeconomic scenarios in eastern India

“…Robusta and grows well in mixed populations.Present study projected the potential suitable habitats of B. cochinchinensis using the SSP pathways. Considering the wide use of B. cochinchinensis in the food industry and for medical purposes, the future distribution scenario with respect to the expected SSP scenarios portrays a more realistic picture and adds to technical strength of the study (Zhang et al 2022;Song et al 2022). Given the predicted vigorous resilience of B. cochinchinensis to climate change, an ex-situ strategy can be adapted to further introduce B. cochinchinensis to sites deemed suitable by the present study.…”