Potential economic impacts of foot‐and‐mouth disease in Brazil: A case study for Mato Grosso and Paraná

Menezes, Taís Cristina de; Filho, Joaquim Bento de Souza Ferreira; Countryman, Amanda M.

doi:10.1002/jaa2.73

Cited by 4 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…While depopulation is an effective countermeasure to address highly contagious diseases such as FMD (58)(59)(60) , culling healthy animals raises ethical concerns. It also increases economic losses due to reduced production and the need for farmer compensation (61). Other studies have proposed alternatives to ring depopulation; for example, (18) simulated a target density strategy and demonstrated its advantages in combating FMD; it resulted in depopulation of a smaller number of healthy animals than traditional total ring depopulation, and the time required to eliminate the outbreaks was similar.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling foot-and-mouth disease dissemination in Brazil and evaluating the effectiveness of control measures

Cárdenas

Lopes

Machado

2022

Preprint

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Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) infects multiple food-animal species, thus capable of disseminating among ungulate species with distinct transmission rates. Here present a multilevel compartmental stochastic model, taking into account births and deaths and explicit representation of species-specific transmission dynamics. The model considered two major modes of dissemination, between-farm animal and spatial transmission. Our model outcomes are the number of secondary infected animals and farms, spatial dissemination distances, and effectiveness of depopulation and vaccination along with surveillance and movement restrictions. We demonstrated that after 20 days of FMD dissemination, the median number of infected farms was 8 (IQR: 3-22), of which 7 (IQR: 3-22) were bovine, 3 (IQR: 1-6) swine farms, and 1 (IQR: 1-1) small ruminants. We demonstrate that animal movement dominated dissemination in the first days of epidemics, while at ten days the spatial transmission dominated bovine infections, whilst between-farm led to most swine infections. We have also shown the median distances between seeded and secondary infections was 5.77 km (IQR: 1-10.29 km), with some long-range dissemination at 695.40 km. We estimated that depopulating 12 and vaccinating 15,000 farms per day faded out 98.3% of the epidemics, however, was insufficient to contain large-scale epidemics (> 248 infected farms). The estimated effectiveness of a baseline control scenario eliminated 93.4% of the epidemics with a median of 9 (IQR: 3-23, max: 221) infected farms. Our results demonstrated that the depopulation alone against epidemics with more than 74 infected farms had limited success, stamping out less than 80% of simulations. The developed transmission model allows for cross-species transmission to be considered in FMD policy-making, and the software implementation facilitates the adaption of scientific-based support to FMD planning and response throughout other Brazilian states.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling foot-and-mouth disease dissemination in Brazil and evaluating the effectiveness of control measures

Cárdenas

Lopes

Machado

2022

Preprint

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“…The effects of FMD outbreak can go far beyond the livestock sector, such as job losses (Miller et al 2018), welfare reductions (Hsu et al 2005), and loss of production and access to international markets (Feng et al 2017). The negative effects of FMD outbreak can also predominantly fall on lower income workers and households (Menezes et al 2023). Also, economic losses following this disease can spread over many periods even with a one-time shock (Gohin and Rault, 2013).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing The Impacts of Food and Mouth Disease Outbreak on The Indonesian Economy and Its Regional Growth

Sahara,

Sugema,

Amaliah

et al. 2023

jma

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Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is typically endemic and commonly found as a recurring issue in many developing countries, including Indonesia. In 2022, FMD has massively spread to 62 districts and cities so that it was declared an outbreak which caused significant economic losses. In this paper, we attempt to assess the impacts of FMD on the Indonesian economy by using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) approach. The results show that the FMD outbreak caused negative pressure on national economic growth, reducing the real wage and consumption, as well as exacerbating trade deficit. The outbreak also induced higher prices of beef and dairy sectors as well as their related sectors. Based on the regional perspective, the main production regions of beef and dairy are expected to suffer higher economic loss than that of other regions. Meanwhile, at the household level, the outbreak caused considerable effect in lowering income and consumption, particularly for rural farm households. Some necessary policies to overcome the outbreak, consisting of establishing a FMD handling post, promoting vaccination, extending financial supports, and maintaining communication and transparency with other countries regarding the outbreak status.

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Animal disease outbreaks and upstream soybean trade

Lwin,

Schaefer,

Hagerman

2024

Food Policy

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Potential economic impacts of foot‐and‐mouth disease in Brazil: A case study for Mato Grosso and Paraná

Cited by 4 publications

References 42 publications

Modeling foot-and-mouth disease dissemination in Brazil and evaluating the effectiveness of control measures

Modeling foot-and-mouth disease dissemination in Brazil and evaluating the effectiveness of control measures

Assessing The Impacts of Food and Mouth Disease Outbreak on The Indonesian Economy and Its Regional Growth

Animal disease outbreaks and upstream soybean trade

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