Potential Effects of Climate Change on the Distribution of an Endangered Species: Melanophryniscus montevidensis (Anura: Bufonidae)

Abstract

Potential effects of climate change on the distribution of an endangered species:Melanophryniscus montevidensis (Anura: Bufonidae). Species distributions are linked with climate. Among the effects predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change are changes in precipitation patterns and increases in mean temperatures-factors potentially having a major impact on threatened, rare, and endemic species. Using models to forecast possible changes in the distributions of different species under different climatechange scenarios, we can identify probable impacts on species and build effective conservation strategies. We modeled the effects of two climate-change scenarios on the geographical distribution of the regionally endemic bufonid, Melanophryniscus montevidensis, categorized as vulnerable by the IUCN and as endangered by the Uruguayan Red List of amphibians. Ecological niche models were generated to describe the present and possible future distributions of this species in 2050 and 2080, given severe (A2) and moderate (B2) climatic changes. Legacy data for M. montevidensis were obtained from Uruguayan biocollections and climate data were acquired from the WorldClim database. At present, M. montevidensis could occur along the Atlantic Uruguayan coast and a small section of the southern Brazilian coast. However, changes in climate may lead to a loss of suitable environmental conditions for this toad; thus, this endangered species is vulnerable and in urgent need of protection.Keywords: amphibians, geographical distribution, niche models, threatened species, Uruguay. 98Phyllomedusa -12(2), December 2013 Resumen Efectos potenciales del cambio climático sobre la distribución de una especie amenazada: Melanophryniscus montevidensis (Anura: Bufonidae). La distribución de las especies está relacionada con el clima. Entre los efectos predichos por el Panel Intergubernamental de Cambio Climático, se encuentran los cambios en los patrones de precipitación y los aumentos en la temperatura media global. Estos factores tienen un impacto mayor en especies amenazadas, raras o endémicas. Usando modelos para predecir posibles cambios en la distribución de especies bajo diferentes escenarios de cambios climático, podemos identificar probables impactos sobre las especies y construir estrategias efectivas de conservación. Modelamos los efectos de dos escenarios de cambio climático en la distribución geográfica de un bufónido regionalmente endémico, Melanophryniscus montevidensis, categorizado como Vulnerable por la UICN, y como amenazado según la Lista Roja de Anfibios de Uruguay. Fueron generados modelos de nicho para describir la distribución presente y futura en 2050 y 2080, bajo los escenarios A2 (severo) y B2 (moderado). Los registros fueron obtenidos de las principales colecciones del país y los datos climáticos se tomaron de la base de datos WorldClim. Actualmente, M. montevidensis podría encontrarse en la costa Atlántica de Uruguay, y una pequeña parte de la costa del sureste de Brasil. Sin embargo, los cambi...

The Correlates of in Situ Larval Survivorship of the Threatened South American Toad Melanophryniscus montevidensis (Anura, Bufonidae)

“…Although a potential response of the species to pond desiccation was reported, ponds that dry in less than 20 d might not yield any offspring. Pond drying might intensify under global warming scenarios that would make more difficult for ponds to retain water for long periods of time (increasing densities, among other effects); this was previously suggested as an explanation for projected losses in distribution areas for several threatened Melanophryniscus species, especially M. montevidensis (Toranza and Maneyro, 2013;Zank et al, 2014). The in situ data provided by this study, combined with demographic data for terrestrial stages (Bardier et al, 2019), could be applied to population stage-structured models (e.g., Biek et al, 2002).…”

Validade da técnica de foto-identificação para analisar marcas naturais em Melanophryniscus montevidensis (Anura: Bufonidae)

“…The decline of the species has been attributed to the increase of urbanization (Maneyro et al 1995). Recently, climate change has been added as a potential threat for the conservation of this species (Toranza and Maneyro 2013). The biological information of this species generated from the use of non-invasive techniques is essential in order to establish conservation actions without compromising the populations in the wild.…”

Clearing up the Crystal Ball: Understanding Uncertainty in Future Climate Suitability Projections for Amphibians

“…Similarly, many studies evaluated community-wide projected habitat changes but did not report percent change in suitable habitat for individual species (Hof et al 2011; Ochoa-Ochoa et al 2012; Lemes and Loyola 2013; Loyola et al 2013). Twelve of the studies in our literature review only investigated one or two species (e.g., Toranza and Maneyro 2013). Although the studies we included in our meta-analysis assessed multiple species (n ¼ 3-451), there were only 24 studies with at least three species, which made comparisons across studies difficult.…”