Potential Effects of Climate Change on the Geographic Distribution of the Endangered Plant Species Manihot walkerae

Garza, Gisel; Rivera, Armida; Venegas-Barrera, Crystian Sadiel; Martínez-Ávalos, José Guadalupe; Dale, Jon; Arroyo, Teresa Patricia Feria

doi:10.3390/f11060689

Cited by 22 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…Combined with the contribution of environmental factors, we retained factors with correlation coefficients under 0.8 with regard to the top six factors. A couple of environmental factors had correlation coefficient values greater than |0.8|, and only one variable with a higher contribution was retained and used in the MaxEnt models [ 32 , 33 ]. Finally, 18 environmental factors were used in the modeling ( Table 1 ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Maximum Entropy Modeling the Distribution Area of Morchella Dill. ex Pers. Species in China under Changing Climate

Cao

Gao

et al. 2022

Biology

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Morchella is a kind of precious edible, medicinal fungi with a series of important effects, including anti-tumor and anti-oxidation effects. Based on the data of 18 environmental variables and the distribution sites of wild Morchella species, this study used a maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model to predict the changes in the geographic distribution of Morchella species in different historical periods (the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), Mid Holocene (MH), current, 2050s and 2070s). The results revealed that the area under the curve (AUC) values of the receiver operating characteristic curves of different periods were all relatively high (>0.83), indicating that the results of the maximum entropy model are good. Species distribution modeling showed that the major factors influencing the geographical distribution of Morchella species were the precipitation of the driest quarter (Bio17), elevation, the mean temperature of the coldest quarter (Bio11) and the annual mean temperature (Bio1). The simulation of geographic distribution suggested that the current suitable habitat of Morchella was mainly located in Yunnan, Sichuan, Gansu, Shaanxi, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (XUAR) and other provinces in China. Compared with current times, the suitable area in Northwest and Northeast China decreased in the LGM and MH periods. As for the future periods, the suitable habitats all increased under the different scenarios compared with those in contemporary times, showing a trend of expansion to Northeast and Northwest China. These results could provide a theoretical basis for the protection, rational exploitation and utilization of wild Morchella resources under scenarios of climate change.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Maximum Entropy Modeling the Distribution Area of Morchella Dill. ex Pers. Species in China under Changing Climate

Cao

Gao

et al. 2022

Biology

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“…In this study, MaxEnt 3.4.1 (https://biodiversityinformatics.amnh.org/open_source/ maxent/, last accessed on 1 July 2021) was used to simulate the potential suitable habitat areas of G. pensilis under the LIG, the LGM, MH, Current and four scenarios in the future (RCP2.6-2050s RCP2.6-2070s, RCP8.5-2050s and RCP8.5-2070s) [17,46]. In order to make the probability of occurrence close to a normal distribution, 75% of the data were selected for model training, the remaining data were used for model testing and other values were the default values [18][19][20][21]. The EMNeval [41,47] package in R (Cran) version 3.6.1 [48] was used to optimize the MaxEnt model and the regularization multiplier (RM) was set to 0.5-4, with intervals of 0.5 each and a total of 8 regulated frequency multipliers.…”

Section: Model Building Optimization and Evaluationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The maximum entropy (MaxEnt) [16] model is the most commonly used prediction model for the potential distribution area of species; it has a high prediction accuracy and good versatility [17]. This model is widely used to predict the distribution of invasive species [18], endangered animals and plants [19][20][21], natural disasters [22] and pests and diseases [23,24]. It can also be used for Wildfire Risk Assessment and Zoning [25].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prediction of Suitable Distribution of a Critically Endangered Plant Glyptostrobus pensilis

Zhang

Yang

et al. 2022

Forests

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Glyptostrobus pensilis is a critically endangered living fossil plant species of the Mesozoic era, with high scientific research and economic value. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of climate change on the potential habitat area of G. pensilis in East Asia. The MaxEnt (maximum entropy) model optimized by the ENMeval data package was used to simulate the potential distribution habitats of G. pensilis since the last interglacial period (LIG, 120–140 ka). The results showed that the optimized MaxEnt model has a high prediction accuracy with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.9843 ± 0.005. The current highly suitable habitats were found in the northeast of Jiangxi, the east of Fujian; the main climatic factors affecting the geographic distribution of G. pensilis are temperature and precipitation, with precipitation as the dominant factor. The minimum temperature of coldest month (Bio6) may be the key factor restricting the northward distribution of G. pensilis; during the LIG, it contracted greatly in the highly suitable habitat area. In the 2070s, the suitable distribution area will move northward and the area of highly suitable habitat will increase. Seasonal changes in temperature and precipitation may be important climatic factors causing the changes in geographic distribution. The results will provide a theoretical basis for the management and resource protection of G. pensilis.

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“…While researching the plant habitat suitability models, most scholars only use climatic factors to establish models [59][60][61]. This study combines climatic factors and topographic factors for model simulation and found that for small-scale vegetation habitat suitability studies, the slope degree may also be an important factor that needs to be adopted, and this factor has been seldom considered in the previous studies.…”

Section: Habitat Suitability Of Native Species Based On Potential Vegmentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrating Habitat Suitability and the Near-Nature Restoration Priorities into Revegetation Plans Based on Potential Vegetation Distribution

Zheng

Wen

Liu

et al. 2021

Forests

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Selecting optimal revegetation patterns and filtering priority areas can improve the effectiveness and efficiency of revegetation planning, particularly in areas with severe vegetation damage. However, few people include optimal revegetation patterns and priority restoration areas into revegetation plans. The Near-Nature restoration pays attention to “based on nature” ideas, guiding the degraded ecosystems to reorganize and achieving sustainable restoration through self-regulation. In this study, we conducted a field survey of the native vegetation communities in the Yanhe River catchment, and the data obtained were used to construct the potential distribution suitability of the habitat and screen the priority areas through the combination of MaxEnt and prioritizr models. We drew a heat map of species richness by simulating the potential distribution of 60 native species. The results showed that the potentially suitable habitats for forest cover were distributed in the southern part of the Yanhe River catchment; the potentially suitable habitats for herbaceous plant species were located in the center and the northwest parts of the study area; the potentially suitable habitats for shrub plant species in this area were larger than that of the forest, and herbaceous plants species were distributed in many zones of the study area. This study demonstrated that shrubs and herbaceous plant species in parts of the Loess Plateau should be considered as the pioneer plants of revegetation in future revegetation plans. Moreover, we also mapped the priority area of the Near-Nature restoration based on the richness of the potential native species. The procedure followed in this study could provide guidance for revegetation planning and manual management in the regions where vegetation damage occurs.

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Potential Effects of Climate Change on the Geographic Distribution of the Endangered Plant Species Manihot walkerae

Cited by 22 publications

References 42 publications

Maximum Entropy Modeling the Distribution Area of Morchella Dill. ex Pers. Species in China under Changing Climate

Maximum Entropy Modeling the Distribution Area of Morchella Dill. ex Pers. Species in China under Changing Climate

Prediction of Suitable Distribution of a Critically Endangered Plant Glyptostrobus pensilis

Integrating Habitat Suitability and the Near-Nature Restoration Priorities into Revegetation Plans Based on Potential Vegetation Distribution

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