Potential Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Future Birth Rate

Abstract

Here, we examine the potential effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on future birth rates. This highly contagious disease originated in China, and rapidly spread worldwide, leading to extensive lockdown policies being implemented globally with the aim of containing the infection rates and its serious attendant consequences. Based on previous extant literature, this paper overviews the potential demographic consequences of the current progressively widespread epidemic on conception and fertility as driven by the data obtained during similar prior incidents. In general, epidemics manifest a common pattern as far as their impact on population, which is remarkably similar to natural disasters, i.e., a steep decline in birth rates followed by gradual increases and then followed by a baby boom. Additionally, we have also depicted how economic conditions, mental health, fear, and mortality may also influence future birth rates.

Baby Bust: Falling Fertility in US Counties Is Associated with COVID-19 Prevalence and Mobility Reductions

“…The 1918 influenza pandemic led to a sharp reduction in U.S. births, with recovery on a period basis in the years that followed (Wagner et al 2020). More recently, epidemics have generally been associated with declines in fertility at least in the short term, provided access to contraception is not severely limited (Ullah et al 2020). With regard to economic changes, recent cohorts of U.S.…”

Extrinsic and Existential Mortality Risk in Reproductive Decision-Making: Examining the Effects of COVID-19 Experience and Climate Change Beliefs

“…Thus, the results might represent a difference between generality and specificity when eliciting responses: Asking participants to "think about the last 6 months" required a more specific examination of their immediate situation compared to the question "what is your ideal number of children?" Importantly, this supposition is supported by the data from previous pandemics where there is a brief reduction in births before a "boom" (Ullah et al, 2020). Thus, asking participants to consider their immediate circumstances produced different responses compared to asking a general question about family planning.…”

Major Trends in Population Growth Around the World

“…The duration of each window of opportunity is limited and does not last forever. Instead, the realization of demographic dividends depends on appropriate policies adopted in other related sectors and the country's ability to implement these policies (22). Research has shown that female labor force participation, educational attainment of the labor force, the potentiality of the old-age population entering the workforce, people's health and wellbeing, urbanization, investments (especially foreign direct invests), high technology, and international trades are all important factors determining the outcomes of demographic dividends (22).…”

“…Instead, the realization of demographic dividends depends on appropriate policies adopted in other related sectors and the country's ability to implement these policies (22). Research has shown that female labor force participation, educational attainment of the labor force, the potentiality of the old-age population entering the workforce, people's health and wellbeing, urbanization, investments (especially foreign direct invests), high technology, and international trades are all important factors determining the outcomes of demographic dividends (22). It is thus important for different countries to formulate socioeconomic policy packages that are consistent with their own population trends and characteristics to reap the maximum benefits of the demographic dividends.…”