Potential for forest carbon plantings to offset greenhouse emissions in Australia: economics and constraints to implementation

Polglase, P. J.; Reeson, Andrew; Hawkins, Charlie; Paul, Keryn I.; Siggins, Anders; Turner, James A.; Crawford, Debbie; Jovanovic, Tom; Hobbs, Trevor; Opie, Kimberley; Carwardine, Josie; Almeida, Auro C.

doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0882-5

Cited by 78 publications

(67 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…The recent establishment of biomass and carbon markets has provided a mechanism for these goals to be achieved (van Oosterzee 2012, Macintosh 2013, with the potential to deliver additional natural resource management cobenefits such as the restoration of degraded ecosystems and associated improvements to biodiversity (Taiyab 2005, Chazdon 2008, Lin et al 2013, Polglase et al 2013). …”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Guidelines for constructing allometric models for the prediction of woody biomass: How many individuals to harvest?

et al. 2015

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Abstract. The recent development of biomass markets and carbon trading has led to increasing interest in obtaining accurate estimates of woody biomass production. Aboveground woody biomass (B) is often estimated indirectly using allometric models, where representative individuals are harvested and weighed, and regression analyses used to generalise the relationship between individual mass and more readily measured non-destructive attributes such as plant height and stem diameter (D). To satisfy regulatory requirements and/or to provide market confidence, allometric models must be based on sufficient data to ensure predictions are accurate, whilst at the same time being practically and financially achievable.Using computer resampling experiments and allometric models of the form B ¼ aD b the trade-off between increasing the sample size of individuals to construct an allometric model and the accuracy of the resulting biomass predictions was assessed. A range of algorithms for selecting individuals across the stem diameter size-class range were also explored. The results showed marked variability across allometric models in the required number of individuals to satisfy a given level of precision. A range of 17-95 individuals were required to achieve biomass predictions with a standard deviation within 5% of the mean for the best performing stem diameter selection algorithm, while 25-166 individuals were required for the poorest. This variability arises from (a) inherent uncertainty in the relationship between diameter and biomass across allometric models, and (b) differences between the diameter size-class distribution of individuals used to construct a model, and the diameter size-class distribution of the population to which the model is applied. Allometric models are a key component of quantifying land-based sequestration activities, but despite their importance little attention has been given to ensuring the methods used in their development will yield sufficiently accurate biomass predictions. The results from this study address this gap and will be of use in guiding the development of new allometric models; in assessing the suitability of existing allometric models; and in facilitating the estimation of uncertainty in biomass predictions.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Guidelines for constructing allometric models for the prediction of woody biomass: How many individuals to harvest?

et al. 2015

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“…Managed reforestation, including rehabilitation of degraded rangeland to enable woody regrowth where there has been substantial top soil loss, may require financial inputs (Spooner et al, 2002;Sparrow et al, 2003;Mengistu et al, 2005;Neff et al, 2005;Polglase et al, 2013). No financial inputs would be necessary if a low C sequestration rate, similar to that for passive reforestation of degraded and grassy areas by natural regrowth and 'woody thickening', can be applied.…”

Section: Dsocmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimising carbon sequestration in arid and semiarid rangelands

Dean

Kirkpatrick

Harper

et al. 2015

Ecological Engineering

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“…There are also significant limits to physical capacity, e.g., labor, seed stock, machinery, capital, that can affect rates of reforestation. Expansion of eucalypt and pine plantations over the past 20 years was restricted by availability of these resources, despite incentives from state and federal governments and managed investment schemes to increase plantations (Polglase et al 2011). Future rates of reforestation are highly uncertain and depend upon the design of policy and institutional arrangements.…”

Section: Landholder Decision Makingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Food-Carbon Trade-offs between Agriculture and Reforestation Land Uses under Alternate Market-based Policies

Paterson¹,

Bryan²

2012

E&S

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ABSTRACT. Understanding the effects of payments on the adoption of reforestation in agricultural areas and the associated food-carbon trade-offs is necessary to inform climate change policy. Economic viability of reforestation under payment per hectare and payment per tonne schemes for carbon sequestration was assessed in a region in southern Australia supporting 6.1 Mha of rain-fed agriculture. The results show that under the median scenario, a carbon price of 27 A$/tCO 2 -e could make onethird of the study area (nearly 2 Mha) more profitable for reforestation than agriculture, and at 58 A$/tCO 2 -e all of the study area could become more profitable. The results were sensitive to variation in carbon risk factor, establishment costs, and discount rates. Pareto-optimal land allocation could realize one-third of the potential carbon sequestration from reforestation (16.35 MtCO 2 -e/yr at a carbon risk factor of 0.8) with a loss of less than one-tenth (107.89 A$M/yr) of the agricultural production. Both payment schemes resulted in efficiencies within 1% of the Pareto-optimum. Understanding food-carbon trade-offs and policy efficiencies can inform carbon policy design.

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Potential for forest carbon plantings to offset greenhouse emissions in Australia: economics and constraints to implementation

Cited by 78 publications

References 26 publications

Guidelines for constructing allometric models for the prediction of woody biomass: How many individuals to harvest?

Guidelines for constructing allometric models for the prediction of woody biomass: How many individuals to harvest?

Optimising carbon sequestration in arid and semiarid rangelands

Food-Carbon Trade-offs between Agriculture and Reforestation Land Uses under Alternate Market-based Policies

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