Potential future distribution of Scirpophaga incertulas (Walker) in Indonesia

Abstract

Scircpophaga incertulas is a caterpillar that lives in rice stalks and can damage rice crops from seedling to maturity. One factor that influences this pest’s presence is the climatic factor. This study aimed to map the future potential distribution of Scircpophaga incertulas (2100). The method utilized in this study was the Species Distribution Model (SDM) from the web-based modeling platform Ecocommons by using the Artificial Neural Network (ANN). For current and climatic projections (the year 2100), the open-source climatic data from CliMond were used. The ANN result shows the climatic factors contributing to this species distribution are annual precipitation amount by more than 80%, followed by the mean monthly precipitation amount (the warmest quarter by precisely 80% and the coldest quarter by 62%). The SDM analysis indicates that around 23.07% of Indonesia’s archipelago is highly suitable for Scircpophaga incertulas in 2100, while in the current situation, 33.03% is suitable. This study deduces that the highest suitability for this pest distribution will cover 80% of the Java Island area in the future. In contrast, this species’ potential distribution in Papua will decline from 46.86% to 21.29% in 2100.