Potential future dynamics of carbon fluxes and pools in New England forests and their climatic sensitivities: A model‐based study

Tang, Guoping; Beckage, Brian; Smith, Benjamin

doi:10.1002/2013gb004656

Cited by 7 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 64 publications

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“…Estimates of deadwood in old‐growth forest are less well studied but a few studies show dead wood stocks that are many times higher than what we observe at the Harvard Forest and other secondary forests in the region (McGee et al 1999, McGarvey et al 2015, D’Amato et al 2017). Simulations using diverse modeling approaches consistently forecast biomass accrual associated with long‐term stand development persisting throughout the next century (Albani et al 2006, Tang et al 2014, Duveneck et al 2017, Wang et al 2017). Simulations also suggest that rising atmospheric CO 2 concentration, higher average temperatures and precipitation, and enhancement of N mineralization rates and possibly N deposition will increase C sequestration despite concomitant increases in respiration (McGuire et al 1992, Richardson et al 2010, Savage et al 2013, Duveneck and Thompson 2017).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Carbon budget of the Harvard Forest Long‐Term Ecological Research site: pattern, process, and response to global change

Finzi

Giasson

Plotkin

et al. 2020

Ecological Monographs

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How, where, and why carbon (C) moves into and out of an ecosystem through time are long-standing questions in biogeochemistry. Here, we bring together hundreds of thousands of C-cycle observations at the Harvard Forest in central Massachusetts, USA, a mid-latitude landscape dominated by 80-120-yr-old closed-canopy forests. These data answered four questions: (1) where and how much C is presently stored in dominant forest types; (2) what are current rates of C accrual and loss; (3) what biotic and abiotic factors contribute to variability in these rates; and (4) how has climate change affected the forest's C cycle? Harvard Forest is an active C sink resulting from forest regrowth following land abandonment. Soil and tree biomass comprise nearly equal portions of existing C stocks. Net primary production (NPP) averaged 680-750 g CÁm À2 Áyr À1 ; belowground NPP contributed 38-47% of the total, but with large uncertainty. Mineral soil C measured in the same inventory plots in 1992 and 2013 was too heterogeneous to detect change in soil-C pools; however, radiocarbon data suggest a small but persistent sink of 10-30 g CÁm À2 Áyr À1. Net ecosystem production (NEP) in hardwood stands averaged~300 g CÁm À2 Áyr À1. NEP in hemlock-dominated forests averaged 450 g CÁm À2 Áyr À1 until infestation by the hemlock woolly adelgid turned these stands into a net C source. Since 2000, NPP has increased by 26%. For the period 1992-2015, NEP increased 93%. The increase in mean annual temperature and growing season length alone accounted for~30% of the increase in productivity. Interannual variations in GPP and NEP were also correlated with increases in red oak biomass, forest leaf area, and canopy-scale lightuse efficiency. Compared to long-term global change experiments at the Harvard Forest, the C sink in regrowing biomass equaled or exceeded C cycle modifications imposed by soil warming, N saturation, and hemlock removal. Results of this synthesis and comparison to simulation models suggest that forests across the region are likely to accrue C for decades to come but may be disrupted if the frequency or severity of biotic and abiotic disturbances increases.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Carbon budget of the Harvard Forest Long‐Term Ecological Research site: pattern, process, and response to global change

Finzi

Giasson

Plotkin

et al. 2020

Ecological Monographs

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“…We expect this to result in markedly different flows of timber, carbon (Tang et al. ), and albedo decay rates, with the overall influence being an increased ability of New Hampshire forest stands to store carbon and generate valuable sawtimber stock. Such shifts in climate will also likely decrease the total days with snowfall and snow pack (Hayhoe ), limiting the influence of albedo and lengthening optimal rotation periods.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trade‐offs between three forest ecosystem services across the state of New Hampshire, USA: timber, carbon, and albedo

Lutz

Burakowski

Murphy

et al. 2016

Ecological Applications

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Forests are more frequently being managed to store and sequester carbon for the purposes of climate change mitigation. Generally, this practice involves long-term conservation of intact mature forests and/or reductions in the frequency and intensity of timber harvests. However, incorporating the influence of forest surface albedo often suggests that long rotation lengths may not always be optimal in mitigating climate change in forests characterized by frequent snowfall. To address this, we investigated trade-offs between three ecosystem services: carbon storage, albedo-related radiative forcing, and timber provisioning. We calculated optimal rotation length at 498 diverse Forest Inventory and Analysis forest sites in the state of New Hampshire, USA. We found that the mean optimal rotation lengths across all sites was 94 yr (standard deviation of sample means = 44 yr), with a large cluster of short optimal rotation lengths that were calculated at high elevations in the White Mountain National Forest. Using a regression tree approach, we found that timber growth, annual storage of carbon, and the difference between annual albedo in mature forest vs. a post-harvest landscape were the most important variables that influenced optimal rotation. Additionally, we found that the choice of a baseline albedo value for each site significantly altered the optimal rotation lengths across all sites, lowering the mean rotation to 59 yr with a high albedo baseline, and increasing the mean rotation to 112 yr given a low albedo baseline. Given these results, we suggest that utilizing temperate forests in New Hampshire for climate mitigation purposes through carbon storage and the cessation of harvest is appropriate at a site-dependent level that varies significantly across the state.

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“…These changes will undoubtedly infl uence forest species composition over the 21st century, with more southerly species such as oaks and hickories becoming signifi cantly more dominant by 2100 (Tang et al 2012 ) and the continued migration of evergreen spruce-fi r forests further upslope (Groffman et al 2012 ). We expect this to result in markedly different fl ows of timber, carbon (Tang et al 2014 ), and albedo decay rates, with the overall infl uence being an increased ability of New Hampshire forest stands to store carbon and generate valuable sawtimber stock. Such shifts in climate will also likely decrease the total days with snowfall and snow pack (Hayhoe 2007 ), limiting the infl uence of albedo and lengthening optimal rotation periods.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tradeoffs between three forest ecosystem services across the state of New Hampshire, USA: timber, carbon, and albedo

Lutz

Burakowski²,

Murphy³

et al. 2015

Ecological Applications

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Forests are more frequently being managed to store and sequester carbon for the purposes of climate change mitigation. Generally, this practice involves long-term conservation of intact mature forests and/or reductions in the frequency and intensity of timber harvests. However, incorporating the infl uence of forest surface albedo often suggests that long rotation lengths may not always be optimal in mitigating climate change in forests characterized by frequent snowfall. To address this, we investigated trade-offs between three ecosystem services: carbon storage, albedo-related radiative forcing, and timber provisioning. We calculated optimal rotation length at 498 diverse Forest Inventory and Analysis forest sites in the state of New Hampshire, USA. We found that the mean optimal rotation lengths across all sites was 94 yr (standard deviation of sample means = 44 yr), with a large cluster of short optimal rotation lengths that were calculated at high elevations in the White Mountain National Forest. Using a regression tree approach, we found that timber growth, annual storage of carbon, and the difference between annual albedo in mature forest vs. a post-harvest landscape were the most important variables that infl uenced optimal rotation. Additionally, we found that the choice of a baseline albedo value for each site signifi cantly altered the optimal rotation lengths across all sites, lowering the mean rotation to 59 yr with a high albedo baseline, and increasing the mean rotation to 112 yr given a low albedo baseline. Given these results, we suggest that utilizing temperate forests in New Hampshire for climate mitigation purposes through carbon storage and the cessation of harvest is appropriate at a site-dependent level that varies signifi cantly across the state.

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Potential future dynamics of carbon fluxes and pools in New England forests and their climatic sensitivities: A model‐based study

Cited by 7 publications

References 64 publications

Carbon budget of the Harvard Forest Long‐Term Ecological Research site: pattern, process, and response to global change

Carbon budget of the Harvard Forest Long‐Term Ecological Research site: pattern, process, and response to global change

Trade‐offs between three forest ecosystem services across the state of New Hampshire, USA: timber, carbon, and albedo

Tradeoffs between three forest ecosystem services across the state of New Hampshire, USA: timber, carbon, and albedo

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