Potential impact of annual vaccination with reformulated COVID-19 vaccines: lessons from the U.S. COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub

Abstract

Importance: COVID-19 continues to cause significant hospitalizations and deaths in the United States. Its continued burden and the impact of annually reformulated vaccines remain unclear. Objective: To project COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths from April 2023–April 2025 under two plausible assumptions about immune escape (20% per year and 50% per year) and three possible CDC recommendations for the use of annually reformulated vaccines (no vaccine recommendation, vaccination for those aged 65+, vaccination for all eligible groups). Design: The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub solicited projections of COVID-19 hospitalization and deaths between April 15, 2023–April 15, 2025 under six scenarios representing the intersection of considered levels of immune escape and vaccination. State and national projections from eight modeling teams were ensembled to produce projections for each scenario. Setting: The entire United States. Participants: None. Exposure: Annually reformulated vaccines assumed to be 65% effective against strains circulating on June 15 of each year and to become available on September 1. Age and state specific coverage in recommended groups was assumed to match that seen for the first (fall 2021) COVID-19 booster. Main outcomes and measures: Ensemble estimates of weekly and cumulative COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths. Expected relative and absolute reductions in hospitalizations and deaths due to vaccination over the projection period. Results: From April 15, 2023–April 15, 2025, COVID-19 is projected to cause annual epidemics peaking November–January. In the most pessimistic scenario (high immune escape, no vaccination recommendation), we project 2.1 million (90% PI: 1,438,000–4,270,000) hospitalizations and 209,000 (90% PI: 139,000–461,000) deaths, exceeding pre-pandemic mortality of influenza and pneumonia. In high immune escape scenarios, vaccination of those aged 65+ results in 230,000 (95% CI: 104,000–355,000) fewer hospitalizations and 33,000 (95% CI: 12,000–54,000) fewer deaths, while vaccination of all eligible individuals results in 431,000 (95% CI: 264,000–598,000) fewer hospitalizations and 49,000 (95% CI: 29,000–69,000) fewer deaths. Conclusion and Relevance: COVID-19 is projected to be a significant public health threat over the coming two years. Broad vaccination has the potential to substantially reduce the burden of this disease.

Planning and adjusting the COVID-19 booster vaccination campaign to reduce disease burden

“…As vaccine efficacy wanes over time, one key aspect of the COVID-19 booster vaccination policy is to determine the timing of delivery of the vaccination program to maximize its potential benefits. This is generally informed by several evolving factors: the overall population immunity [1][2][3] , depending on heterogeneous individual history in terms of vaccination, prior infections, and their combined effect, and on its waning level of protection; the characteristics of the circulating variants [4][5][6] , especially in terms of disease severity, affected populations, and immune escape; and the expected risk of exposure anticipating an upcoming epidemic wave. Spacing out vaccination campaigns while maintaining a good level of protection in the population during a surge of cases 7,8 is key to reduce the burden of the disease.…”