Potential impact of climate change on selected agricultural crops in north‐eastern Austria

Abstract

The vulnerability and adaptation of major agricultural crops to various soils in north‐eastern Austria under a changing climate were investigated. The CERES crop model for winter wheat and the CROPGRO model for soybean were validated for the agrometeorological conditions in the selected region. The simulated winter wheat and soybean yields in most cases agreed with the measured data. Several incremental and transient global circulation model (GCM) climate change scenarios were created and used in the study. In these scenarios, annual temperatures in the selected region are expected to rise between 0.9 and 4.8 °C from the 2020s to the 2080s. The results show that warming will decrease the crop‐growing duration of the selected crops. For winter wheat, a gradual increase in air temperature resulted in a yield decrease. Incremental warming, especially in combination with an increase in precipitation, leads to higher soybean yield. A drier climate will reduce soybean yield, especially on soils with low water storage capacity. All transient GCM climate change scenarios for the 21st century, including the adjustment for only air temperature, precipitation and solar radiation, projected reductions of winter wheat yield. However, when the direct effect of increased levels of CO2 concentration was assumed, all GCM climate change scenarios projected an increase in winter wheat yield in the region. The increase in simulated soybean yield for the 21st century was primarily because of the positive impact of warming and especially of the beneficial influence of the direct CO2 effect. Changes in climate variability were found to affect winter wheat and soybean yield in various ways. Results from the adaptation assessments suggest that changes in sowing date, winter wheat and soybean cultivar selection could significantly affect crop production in the 21st century.

Aboveground dry biomass partitioning and nitrogen accumulation in early maturing soybean ‘Merlin’

“…Challinor and Wheeler [28] showed that average and high temperatures during the growing season were not the main determinants of soybean seed yield, but extreme temperatures had a negative effect on yield. A similar approach to climate change and soybean yield has been presented by Vasselin et al [29], indicating the effectiveness of soybean adaptation in western parts of Europe. Using the CROPGRO model, these authors showed that incremental warming, in combination with an increase in precipitation, leads to higher soybean yield.…”

Future rainfall variations reduce abundances of aboveground arthropods in model agroecosystems with different soil types

“…As arthropods can have a strong influence on nutrient cycling processes (Seastedt and Crossley, 1984), they are also very important for ecosystem net primary production (Abbas and Parwez, 2012). Predicted longer drought intervals between rainfall events will increase drought stress for crops while changes in the amount and timing of rainfall will affect yields and the biomass production of crops (Eitzinger et al, 2001;Alexandrov et al, 2002;Thaler et al, 2008). These changes in vegetation structure and quality will also affect associated arthropods (Andow, 1991).…”

Agro-Ecology for Potential Adaptation of Horticultural Systems to Climate Change: Agronomic and Energetic Performance Evaluation

“…Indeed, there are many potential ways to introduce management-level adaptation options for cropping systems, thus dealing with projected climate changes [3][4][5]. These adaptations include strategies such as altering varieties/species to those with more appropriate vernalization requirements and/or with resistance to heat shock and drought.…”