Potential impact of climate change on intensity duration frequency curves of central Alberta

Kuo, Chun-Chao; Gan, Thian Yew; Gizaw, Mesgana Seyoum

doi:10.1007/s10584-015-1347-9

Cited by 44 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…It is also interesting to note that for the 2-, 5-, and 10-year return periods, the median change factor of the 3-hour duration storm is the largest of all durations. This is in line with other studies that found only short duration storms are shown to have consistently higher intensities in the future (Kuo et al 2015;Cheng and AghaKouchak 2014); however, it also suggests further analysis of relative change is needed to produce understanding of whether the result has a clear physical interpretation and is expected to be reliably predicted across downscaling procedures and regions.…”

Section: Results and Discussion Of Framework Applicationsupporting

confidence: 88%

“…Arnbjerg-Nielsen et al 2013;Forsee and Ahmad 2011). These climateinformed local-scale models have also been used to update intensity-duration-frequency curves used in design of infrastructure affected by rainfall (Chandra et al 2015;Cheng and AghaKouchak 2014;Forsee and Ahmad 2011;Zhu 2012;Kuo et al 2015;Hassanzadeh et al 2013;Mirhosseini et al 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Framework for Incorporating Downscaled Climate Output into Existing Engineering Methods: Application to Precipitation Frequency Curves

Cook

Anderson

Samaras

2017

J. Infrastruct. Syst.

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Abstract:To improve the resiliency of designs, particularly for long-lived infrastructure, current engineering practice must be updated to incorporate a range of future climate conditions that are likely to be different from the past. However, a considerable mismatch exists between climate model outputs and the data inputs needed for engineering designs. The present work provides a framework for incorporating climate trends into design standards and applications, including: selecting the appropriate climate model source based on the intended application, understanding model performance and uncertainties, addressing differences in temporal and spatial scales, and interpreting results for engineering design. The framework is illustrated through an application to depth-duration-frequency curves, which are commonly used in stormwater design. A change factor method is used to update the curves in a case study of Pittsburgh, PA. Extreme precipitation depth is expected to increase in the future for Pittsburgh for all return periods and durations examined, requiring revised standards and designs. Doubling the return period and using historical, stationary values may enable adequate design for short duration storms; however, this method is shown to be insufficient to enable protective designs for larger duration storms.

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Section: Results and Discussion Of Framework Applicationsupporting

confidence: 88%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Framework for Incorporating Downscaled Climate Output into Existing Engineering Methods: Application to Precipitation Frequency Curves

Cook

Anderson

Samaras

2017

J. Infrastruct. Syst.

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“…In addition to the choice of climate model spatial resolution, the choice of spatial downscaling or MOS technique used to incorporate RCM simulations into IDF curves has the potential to considerably alter future rainfall projections. To create climate-corrected IDF curves, many apply MOS techniques to the continuous rainfall time series as the first step in the process, through bias correction (Cannon et al 2015;Kuo et al 2015;Kueh and Kuok 2016), weather typing (Mandal et al 2016b), or weather generators (Wilks and Wilby 1999). The extreme rainfall events extracted from these continuous series (i.e., the annual maximum or partial duration series) can also be adjusted, e.g., through quantile mapping (Srivastav et al 2014b), genetic programming (Hassanzadeh et al 2013), or historical analogs (Castellano and DeGaetano 2016).…”

Section: Choice Of Spatial Adjustment (Mos) Techniquementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Higher rainfall intensities lead to more severe storms, with expected increases in damages related to residential, street, and flash flooding (Mailhot and Duchesne 2009;Arnbjerg-Nielsen et al 2013;Willems et al 2013). The largest increases are expected in shorter duration events (less than a day) (Westra et al 2014;Kuo et al 2015) with hourly extreme precipitation events expected to increase by as much as 400% in North America (Prein et al 2016b). A major concern is how these changes will affect the function of stormwater systems that have been designed using assumptions that future rainfall will be similar to past rainfall (i.e., the assumption of a stationary climate).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The effect of modeling choices on updating intensity-duration-frequency curves and stormwater infrastructure designs for climate change

2020

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Intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves, commonly used in stormwater infrastructure design to represent characteristics of extreme rainfall, are gradually being updated to reflect expected changes in rainfall under climate change. The modeling choices used for updating lead to large uncertainties; however, it is unclear how much these uncertainties affect the design and cost of stormwater systems. This study investigates how the choice of spatial resolution of the regional climate model (RCM) ensemble and the spatial adjustment technique affect climatecorrected IDF curves and resulting stormwater infrastructure designs in 34 US cities for the period 2020 to 2099. In most cities, IDF values are significantly different between three spatial adjustment techniques and two RCM spatial resolutions. These differences have the potential to alter the size of stormwater systems designed using these choices and affect the results of climate impact modeling more broadly. The largest change in the engineering decision results when the design storm is selected from the upper bounds of the uncertainty distribution of the IDF curve, which changes the stormwater pipe design size by five increments in some cases, nearly doubling the cost. State and local agencies can help reduce some of this variability by setting guidelines, such as avoiding the use of the upper bound of the future uncertainty range as a design storm and instead accounting for uncertainty by tracking infrastructure performance over time and preparing for adaptation using a resilience plan.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Framework for Incorporating Downscaled Climate Output into Existing Engineering Methods: Application to Precipitation Frequency Curves

Cook¹,

Anderson²,

Samaras³

2017

Preprint

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To improve the resiliency of designs, particularly for long-lived infrastructure, current engineering practice must be updated to incorporate a range of future climate conditions that are likely to be different from the past. However, a considerable mismatch exists between climate model outputs and the data inputs needed for engineering designs. The present work provides a framework for incorporating climate trends into design standards and applications, including: selecting the appropriate climate model source based on the intended application, understanding model performance and uncertainties, addressing differences in temporal and spatial scales, and interpreting results for engineering design. The framework is illustrated through an application to depth-duration-frequency curves, which are commonly used in stormwater design. A change factor method is used to update the curves in a case study of Pittsburgh, PA. Extreme precipitation depth is expected to increase in the future for Pittsburgh for all return periods and durations examined, requiring revised standards and designs. Doubling the return period and using historical, stationary values may enable adequate design for short duration storms; however, this method is shown to be insufficient to enable protective designs for larger duration storms.

show abstract

Potential impact of climate change on intensity duration frequency curves of central Alberta

Cited by 44 publications

References 35 publications

Framework for Incorporating Downscaled Climate Output into Existing Engineering Methods: Application to Precipitation Frequency Curves

Framework for Incorporating Downscaled Climate Output into Existing Engineering Methods: Application to Precipitation Frequency Curves

The effect of modeling choices on updating intensity-duration-frequency curves and stormwater infrastructure designs for climate change

Framework for Incorporating Downscaled Climate Output into Existing Engineering Methods: Application to Precipitation Frequency Curves

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