Potential impact of climatic factors on the distribution of Graphium sarpedon in China

Abstract

Graphium sarpedon is a significant foliar pest of Laurel plants in China. In this study, the MaxEnt model was used to investigate the distribution of G. sarpedon and predict its potential distribution areas in China in the future (2050s and 2090s) based on three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, and SSP5‐8.5), and key environmental variables affecting its distribution were identified. The results showed that under the current climatic conditions, the suitable distribution areas of G. sarpedon were 92.17°–134.96° E and 18.04°–33.61° N, including Yangtze Plain (Middle and Lower), Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta, and Lingnan areas. Under the future climate conditions, the total suitable distribution area of G. sarpedon decreased, but the area of medium suitable area increased. The study identified 11 key environmental variables affecting the distribution of G. sarpedon, the most critical of which was Precipitation of Warmest Quarter (bio18) and precipitation in April, May, June, and September (prec4, prec5, prec6, and prec9). This study is beneficial for monitoring and preventing the possible changes of G. sarpedon and provides theoretical references for its prevention and control.

Potential impact of climate change on the distribution of Capricornis milneedwardsii, a vulnerable mammal in China

“…Our study underscores the significance of China's moist areas as the primary habitats for C. milneedwardsii and highlights the need to prioritize these regions, known for their high levels of wildlife diversity and activity (Liao et al., 2024 ), in conservation efforts. The MaxEnt model developed here identifies temperature, rainfall, elevation, and slope as the key environmental factors influencing the species' habitat suitability, providing valuable insights for targeted conservation strategies.…”

“…Among these methods, MaxEnt has been widely adopted by researchers due to its ability to perform well with small sample sizes (Wisz et al., 2008 ), its use of presence‐only occurrence data and relevant environmental variables (Elith et al., 2011 ), and its direct output of habitat suitability maps (Purohit & Rawat, 2022 ). In recent years, MaxEnt has been successfully utilized to study habitat suitability for various animal and plant species, including Graphium sarpedon (Liao et al., 2024 ), Panthera uncia (Yang et al., 2023 ), Tragopan caboti (Zhao et al., 2023 ), Cirsium lineare (Fang et al., 2024 ), Clerodendrum infortunatum (Purohit & Rawat, 2022 ), and Daphne mucronata Royle (Abolmaali et al., 2018 ), with favorable outcomes. Predicting species distribution patterns and dynamic habitat suitability changes in advance is therefore crucial for developing protection and utilization strategies for at‐risk species (Chen et al., 2022 ).…”