Potential impact of global climate change on malaria risk.

Abstract

The biological activity and geographic distribution of the malarial parasite and its vector are sensitive to climatic influences, especially temperature and precipitation. We have incorporated General Circulation Model-based scenarios of anthropogenic global climate change in an integrated linked-system model for predicting changes in malaria epidemic potential in the next century. The concept of the disability-adjusted life years is included to arrive at a single measure of the effect of anthropogenic climate change on the health impact of malaria. Assessment of the potential impact of global climate change on the incidence of malaria suggests a widespread increase of risk due to expansion of the areas suitable for malaria transmission. This predicted increase is most pronounced at the borders of endemic malaria areas and at higher altitudes within malarial areas. The incidence of infection is sensitive to climate changes in areas of Southeast Asia, South America, and parts of Africa where the disease is less endemic; in these regions the numbers of years of healthy life lost may increase significantly. However, the simulated changes in malaria risk must be interpreted on the basis of local environmental conditions, the effects of socioeconomic developments, and malaria control programs or capabilities. Images p458-a Figure 1. Figure 2. Figure 3. Figure 4. Figure 5.

The potential effects of climate change on malaria transmission in Africa using bias-corrected regionalised climate projections and a simple malaria seasonality model

“…For example, Martens et al (1995Martens et al ( , 1999, Martens (1998), van Lieshout et al (2004) applied a process-based mathematical biological malaria model. In their projections, malaria transmission increased at high altitudes and decreased under dryer conditions at the end of the 21st century.…”

Effect of Climate Change on Lyme Disease Risk in North America

“…Because climate has a well-documented role in the maintenance of vectors and pathogens in nature, some studies have predicted that the present warming phase of the Earth will result in the redistribution of many vector-borne diseases (Reeves, Hardy et al 1994;Patz, Epstein et al 1996). For instance, warming temperatures have been predicted to both enhance transmission intensity and extend the distribution of diseases such a malaria and dengue (Martens, Niessen et al 1995;Lindsay and Martens 1998;Patz, Martens et al 1998;Hales, de Wet et al 2002;Tanser, Sharp et al 2003). In particular, climate change may open up previously uninhabitable territory for arthropod vectors as well as increase reproductive and biting rates, and shorten the pathogen incubation period (Shope 1991;Patz, Epstein et al 1996).…”

ENSO and cholera: A nonstationary link related to climate change?

“…Of considerable importance among these impacts are those affecting human health, particularly the spread and intensification of water-born (1, 3-7) and vectorborn diseases (1,8,9). A central difficulty that precludes quantitative assessment of these impacts arises from the lack of studies comparing past and present dynamics of infectious diseases over sufficiently long time periods relevant to climate change.…”