Potential Impact of Global Climate Change on Forest Distribution in Sri Lanka

Somaratne, S.; Dhanapala, A. H.

doi:10.1007/978-94-017-1053-4_12

Cited by 12 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 5 publications

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“…Pakistan's national communication report states that detrimental impacts of climate change on rural livelihoods would result in more people being forced to seek employment in urban areas (MoE 2003). In Sri Lanka, Somaratne and Dhanapala (1996) estimate a decrease in tropical rain forest of 2-11% and an increase in tropical dry forest of 7-8%. This study also indicates that increased temperature and rainfall would result in a northward shift of tropical wet forest into areas currently occupied by tropical dry forest.…”

Section: Impacts On Crop Pasture and Forest Productivitymentioning

confidence: 97%

Climate Change in South Asia

Sivakumar

Stefanski

2010

Climate Change and Food Security in South Asia

107

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South Asia, is home to over one fifth of the world's population and is known to be the most disaster prone region in the world. The high rates of population growth, and natural resource degradation, with continuing high rates of poverty and food insecurity make South Asia one of the most vulnerable regions to the impacts of climate change. In general, past and present climate trends and variability in South Asia can be characterized by increasing air temperatures and there is an increasing trend in the intensity and frequency of extreme events in South Asia over the last century. Temperature projections for South Asia for the twenty-first century suggest a significant acceleration of warming over that observed in the twentieth century. Recent modelling experiments indicate that the warming would be significant in Himalayan Highlands including the Tibetan Plateau and arid regions of Asia. An increase in occurrence of extreme weather events including heat wave and intense precipitation events is projected in South

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Section: Impacts On Crop Pasture and Forest Productivitymentioning

confidence: 97%

Climate Change in South Asia

Sivakumar

Stefanski

2010

Climate Change and Food Security in South Asia

107

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“…Using climate change scenarios generated by the UKMO and GISS GCMs, Boonpragob and Santisirisomboon (1996) estimated that the area of sub-tropical forest could decline from the current 50% to either 20 or 12% of Thailand's total forest cover (depending on the model used), whereas the area of tropical forests could increase from 45 to 80% of total forest cover. Somaratne and Dhanapala (1996) used the same model for Sri Lanka and estimated a decrease in tropical rainforest of 2-11% and an increase in tropical dry forest of 7-8%. A northward shift of tropical wet forests into areas currently occupied by tropical dry forests also is projected.…”

Section: Asiamentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of Present and Future Climate Variability and Change on Agriculture and Forestry in the Arid and Semi-Arid Tropics

Sivakumar

Das

Brunini³

2005

Climatic Change

278

134

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The arid and semi-arid regions account for approximately 30% of the world total area and are inhabited by approximately 20% of the total world population. Issues of present and future climate variability and change on agriculture and forestry in the arid and semi-arid tropics of the world were examined and discussion under each of these issues had been presented separately for Asia, Africa and Latin America.Several countries in tropical Asia have reported increasing surface temperature trends in recent decades. Although, there is no definite trend discernible in the long-term mean for precipitation for the tropical Asian region, many countries have shown a decreasing trend in rainfall in the past three decades. African rainfall has changed substantially over the last 60 yr and a number of theoretical, modelling and empirical analyses have suggested that noticeable changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme events, including floods may occur when there are only small changes in climate. Climate in Latin America is affected by the El Niño-southern oscillation (ENSO) phases and there is a close relationship between the increase and decrease of rainfall depending upon the warm or cold phases of the phenomenon.Over land regions of Asia, the projected area-averaged annual mean warming is likely to be 1.6 ± 0.2 • C in the 2020s, 3.1 ± 0.3 • C in the 2050s, and 4.6 ± 0.4 • C in the 2080s and the models show high uncertainty in projections of future winter and summer precipitation. Future annual warming across Africa is projected to range from 0.2 • C per decade to more than 0.5 • C per decade, while future changes in mean seasonal rainfall in Africa are less well defined. In Latin America, projections indicate a slight increase in temperature and changes in precipitation.Impacts of climate variability and changes are discussed with suitable examples. Agricultural productivity in tropical Asia is sensitive not only to temperature increases, but also to changes in the nature and characteristics of monsoon. Simulations of the impacts of climate change using crop simulation models show that crop yield decreases due to climate change could have serious impacts on food security in tropical Asia. Climate change is likely to cause environmental and social stress in many of Asia's rangelands and drylands. In the arid and semi-arid tropics of Africa, which are already having difficulty coping with environmental stress, climate change resulting in increased frequencies of drought poses the greatest risk to agriculture. Impacts were described as those related to projected temperature increases, the possible consequences to water balance of the combination of enhanced temperatures and changes in precipitation and sensitivity of different crops/cropping systems to projected changes. In Latin America, agriculture and water resources are most affected through the impact of extreme temperatures (excessive heat, frost) and the changes in rainfall (droughts, flooding). Adaptation potential in the arid and semi-arid tropics of Asia, ...

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“…CC is expected to affect Sri Lanka's forest distribution as well, with increases in tropical very dry (5%) and tropical dry forest (7%) and a decrease in tropical wet forest (11%) areas (Somaratne and Dhanapala 1996). Sea level rise as a result of global warming poses another threat to coastal agricultural areas due to inundation and salinity intrusion of coastal wetlands and aquifers.…”

Section: Impacts On Agriculturementioning

confidence: 99%

IWMI Research Report 135

Eriyagama¹,

Smakhtin²,

Chandrapala³

et al. 2010

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The publications in this series cover a wide range of subjects-from computer modeling to experience with water user associations-and vary in content from directly applicable research to more basic studies, on which applied work ultimately depends. Some research reports are narrowly focused, analytical and detailed empirical studies; others are wide-ranging and synthetic overviews of generic problems.Although most of the reports are published by IWMI staff and their collaborators, we welcome contributions from others. Each report is reviewed internally by IWMI staff, and by external reviewers. The reports are published and distributed both in hard copy and electronically (www.iwmi.org) and where possible all data and analyses will be available as separate downloadable files. Reports may be copied freely and cited with due acknowledgment. About IWMIIWMI's mission is to improve the management of land and water resources for food, livelihoods and the environment. In serving this mission, IWMI concentrates on the integration of policies, technologies and management systems to achieve workable solutions to real problems-practical, relevant results in the field of irrigation and water and land resources.

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Potential Impact of Global Climate Change on Forest Distribution in Sri Lanka

Cited by 12 publications

References 5 publications

Climate Change in South Asia

Climate Change in South Asia

Impacts of Present and Future Climate Variability and Change on Agriculture and Forestry in the Arid and Semi-Arid Tropics

IWMI Research Report 135

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