2020
DOI: 10.1101/2020.02.13.20022806
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Potential impact of seasonal forcing on a SARS-CoV-2 pandemic

Abstract: A novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) first detected in Wuhan, China, has spread rapidly since December 2019, causing more than 80,000 confirmed infections and 2,700 fatalities (as of Feb 27, 2020). Imported cases and transmission clusters of various sizes have been reported globally suggesting a pandemic is likely. Here, we explore how seasonal variation in transmissibility could modulate a SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Data from routine diagnostics show a strong and consistent seasonal variation of the four endemic corona… Show more

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Cited by 69 publications
(74 citation statements)
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“…In terms of transmission, the ability of SARS-CoV-2 to cause widespread infection is more reflective of HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1 than of its more clinically severe relatives. HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1 cause annual wintertime outbreaks of respiratory illness in temperate regions (9,10), suggesting that wintertime climate and host behaviors may facilitate transmission, as is true for influenza (11)(12)(13). Immunity to HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1 appears to wane appreciably within one year (14), while SARS infection can induce longer-lasting immunity (15).…”
Section: Abstract (Limit 125 Words)mentioning
confidence: 99%
“…In terms of transmission, the ability of SARS-CoV-2 to cause widespread infection is more reflective of HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1 than of its more clinically severe relatives. HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1 cause annual wintertime outbreaks of respiratory illness in temperate regions (9,10), suggesting that wintertime climate and host behaviors may facilitate transmission, as is true for influenza (11)(12)(13). Immunity to HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1 appears to wane appreciably within one year (14), while SARS infection can induce longer-lasting immunity (15).…”
Section: Abstract (Limit 125 Words)mentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Dynamic modeling of COVID-19 along these lines has been attempted in several prior works [29][30][31][32][33][34]. Kucharski et.…”
Section: Mathematical Modeling Techniquesmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…al. [34] have introduced a parametric excitation into the basic S-I-R model to study the effects of seasonal temperature variation on the spread of the epidemic. As alternative approaches to the modeling, we would like to cite References [35,36] which have used stochastic models to analyse the course of the disease in Wuhan and on the cruise ship Diamond Princess respectively.…”
Section: Mathematical Modeling Techniquesmentioning
confidence: 99%
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“…This gap might be due to tropical countries with moderate economy are tended to be resource poor, not capable to do regular testing or there might be an impact of tropical weather to reduce the pandemic nature COVID-19, rather be a panic. A number of studies (11,12) argued that higher temperature and high relative humidity reduce the spreading capacity of new coronavirus to a greater extent, while there it would be popped again in 2020-2021 winter season (13). Researchers along with epidemiological experts also predicting COVID-19 cannot take advantage and bridgehead in the tropics than in the world's temperate regions (14).…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%