Potential Impacts of Global Warming on the Diversity and Distribution of Stream Insects in South Korea

Abstract

Globally, the East Asian monsoon region is one of the richest environments in terms of biodiversity. The region is undergoing rapid human development, yet its river ecosystems have not been well studied. Global warming represents a major challenge to the survival of species in this region and makes it necessary to assess and reduce the potential consequences of warming on species of conservation concern. We projected the effects of global warming on stream insect (Ephemeroptera, Odonata, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera [EOPT]) diversity and predicted the changes of geographical ranges for 121 species throughout South Korea. Plecoptera was the most sensitive (decrease of 71.4% in number of species from the 2000s through the 2080s) order, whereas Odonata benefited (increase of 66.7% in number of species from the 2000s through the 2080s) from the effects of global warming. The impact of global warming on stream insects was predicted to be minimal prior to the 2060s; however, by the 2080s, species extirpation of up to 20% in the highland areas and 2% in the lowland areas were predicted. The projected responses of stream insects under global warming indicated that species occupying specific habitats could undergo major reductions in habitat. Nevertheless, habitat of 33% of EOPT (including two-thirds of Odonata and one-third of Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera) was predicted to increase due to global warming. The community compositions predicted by generalized additive models varied over this century, and a large difference in community structure in the highland areas was predicted between the 2000s and the 2080s. However, stream insect communities, especially Odonata, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera, were predicted to become more homogenous under global warming.

Aquatic ecosystem assessment and management

“…Among them, river damming is the anthropogenic factor that induces the most dramatic habitat loss and degradation in freshwater ecosystems (Park et al, 2003). Global warming has profound effects on the distribution and phenology of species, affecting biodiversity (Kwon et al, 2015), and it has already had observable effects on ecosystems worldwide, and an accelerated rate of global change is predicted in the future (Li et al, 2013(Li et al, , 2014. Song et al (2016) examined the effects of damming on the longitudinal distribution of fish in a Korean stream, using two computational methods: a self-organizing map (SOM) and spatial autocorrelation.…”

Continental drift and climate change drive instability in insect assemblages

“…For example, the breakup of Pangaea into Laurasia and Gondwanaland seems to have caused the separation of Plecoptera into distinct southern and northern hemisphere suborders, i.e., Antarctoperlaria and Arctoperlaria9. Plecopteran nymphs mainly inhabit cold and clean running waters, and their basic physiological functions are extensively influenced by external thermal conditions9101112. These characteristics, in addition to their low dispersal capacity, make Plecoptera an excellent animal model with which to detect global change13.…”

“…Extinction will occur if organisms fail to adapt to new environmental condition by means of either ecological or genetic strategy512181920. Although rapid evolutionary adaptation is possible, movement to track favorable habitats is generally acknowledged as the more common response of organisms21.…”

Prediction of abundance of arthropods according to climate change scenario RCP 4.5 and 8.5 in South Korea

“…The high taxa level projections of arthropods might contribute significantly for the whole picture of the climate warming related ecological change. Although a lot of studies that predict changes in organisms due to climate change have been conducted, no studies have been done on arthropods except those carried out in South Korea (Kwon et al 2014c;Kwon et al 2014b;Lee et al 2015;Li et al 2013;Li et al 2014). Because predictions using a species distribution model are mostly based on literature data or specimens in museums, they use information on occurrence (1, presence; 0, absence) rather than abundance.…”

“…In South Korea, studies to predict changes in the distribution caused by climate warming have been conducted on the various arthropod groups: a projection of the distribution and diversity of aquatic insects using the Ministry of Environment's national survey data (Li et al 2013(Li et al , 2014, and projections of distributional changes in ants (Kwon et al 2014c;, spiders (Kwon et al 2014b), beetles , and flies using the data of the Korea Forest Research Institute, Seoul in South Korea. This study was performed to find the future changes in abundance and richness of arthropods due to the temperature increase at high taxonomic levels using the Korea Forest Research Institute data.…”