Potential influences on the United Kingdom's floods of winter 2013/14

Huntingford, Chris; Marsh, Terry; Scaife, Adam A.; Kendon, Elizabeth J.; Hannaford, Jamie; Kay, Alison L.; Lockwood, Mike; Prudhomme, Christel; Reynard, Nick; Parry, Simon; Lowe, Jason; Screen, James A.; Ward, Helen C.; Roberts, Malcolm; Stott, Peter; Bell, V. A.; Bailey, Mark; Jenkins, Alan; Legg, Tim; Otto, Friederike E. L.; Massey, Neil; Schaller, Nathalie; Slingo, Julia; Allen, Myles

doi:10.1038/nclimate2314

Cited by 179 publications

(186 citation statements)

References 94 publications

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“…The impacts were consistent with projections for increased UK flood risk under climate change (Huntingford et al 2014), led to a major emergency response, and prompted Prime Minister David Cameron and national media to attribute the events, at least in part, to climate change (BBC Online 2014). Subsequent climate model simulations indicate that the risks of extreme precipitation in Southern England at the time were heightened significantly by anthropogenic warming (Schaller et al 2016).…”

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confidence: 63%

“…Nonetheless, it is important to understand how people's experiences with extreme weather might influence their engagement with climate risks, especially in a context where EWEs are predicted to increase in frequency and severity (Huntingford et al 2014). The findings speak to the importance of a societal discourse or narrative around extreme weather that includes climate change.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Experience of extreme weather affects climate change mitigation and adaptation responses

et al. 2016

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The winter of 2013/2014 saw a series of severe storms hit the UK, leading to widespread flooding, a major emergency response and extensive media exposure. Previous research indicates that experiencing extreme weather events has the potential to heighten engagement with climate change, however the process by which this occurs remains largely unknown, and establishing a clear causal relationship from experience to perceptions is methodologically challenging. The UK winter flooding offered a natural experiment to examine this question in detail. We compare individuals personally affected by flooding (n = 162) to a nationally representative sample (n = 975). We show that direct experience of flooding leads to an overall increased salience of climate change, pronounced emotional responses and greater perceived personal vulnerability and risk perceptions. We also present the first evidence that direct flooding experience can give rise to behavioural intentions beyond individual sustainability actions, including support for mitigation policies, and personal climate adaptation in matters unrelated to the direct experience.

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confidence: 63%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Experience of extreme weather affects climate change mitigation and adaptation responses

et al. 2016

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“…Flows at Kingston continuously exceeded 250 m 3 /s for 76 days, over twice the previous longest 147 period of 30 days in 1947 (Huntingford et al, 2014). Substantial surface inundation along the 148 Thames was observed from Datchet, Berkshire to Shepperton, West London and was widely 149 reported in the international media.…”

Section: Flooding Event and Monitoring Network 139mentioning

confidence: 96%

“…Flows have exceeded this rate 8 times over the record 144 since 1883, which corresponds to an approximate return period of 1 in 17 years. Whilst this return 145 period is not particularly high, the flooding was exceptional in duration (Huntingford et al, 2014). 146…”

Section: Flooding Event and Monitoring Network 139mentioning

confidence: 98%

Impacts of extreme flooding on riverbank filtration water quality

Ascott

Lapworth

Gooddy

et al. 2016

Science of The Total Environment

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11Riverbank filtration schemes form a significant component of public water treatment processes on a 12 global level. Understanding the resilience and water quality recovery of these systems following 13 severe flooding is critical for effective water resources management under potential future climate 14 change. This paper assesses the impact of floodplain inundation on the water quality of a shallow 15 aquifer riverbank filtration system and how water quality recovers following an extreme (1 in 17 16 year, duration > 70 days, 7 day inundation) flood event. During the inundation event, riverbank 17 filtrate water quality is dominated by rapid direct recharge and floodwater infiltration (high fraction 18 of surface water, dissolved organic carbon (DOC) > 140% baseline values, > 1 log increase in micro-19 organic contaminants, microbial detects and turbidity, low specific electrical conductivity (SEC) < 20 90% baseline, high dissolved oxygen (DO) > 400% baseline). A rapid recovery is observed in water 21 quality with most floodwater impacts only observed for 2 -3 weeks after the flooding event and a 22 *Revised manuscript with no changes marked Click here to view linked References 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 2 return to normal groundwater conditions within 6 weeks (lower fraction of surface water, higher 23 SEC, lower DOC, organic and microbial detects, DO). Recovery rates are constrained by the 24 hydrogeological site setting, the abstraction regime and the water quality trends at site boundary 25 conditions. In this case, increased abstraction rates and a high transmissivity aquifer facilitate rapid 26 water quality recoveries, with longer term trends controlled by background river and groundwater 27 qualities. Temporary reductions in abstraction rates appear to slow water quality recoveries. 28Flexible operating regimes such as the one implemented at this study site are likely to be required if 29 shallow aquifer riverbank filtration systems are to be resilient to future inundation events. 30Development of a conceptual understanding of hydrochemical boundaries and site hydrogeology 31 through monitoring is required to assess the suitability of a prospective riverbank filtration site.

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“…A potential driver for positive sea surface temperature anomalies in the North Pacific and cold conditions in central North America further downstream is warm surface waters in the tropical west Pacific (Palmer 2014;Hartmann 2015). It has been suggested that increasing sea surface temperatures in the tropical west Pacific could also be the cause for extreme weather over the British Isles (Huntingford et al 2014;Slingo et al 2014;Kendon and McCarthy 2015). In line with this hypothesis, we first quantify the interannual variability of winter windstorm fre- Matthews et al 2014;CRU 2014).…”

Section: Referencesmentioning

confidence: 99%