Potential of a probabilistic hydrometeorological forecasting approach for the 28 September 2012 extreme flash flood in Murcia, Spain

Amengual, A.; Homar, V.; Jaume, O.

doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2015.06.012

Cited by 33 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 47 publications

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“…This being the case, an extreme flood event can be simply characterized as a flood event with a small probability of occurrence, but with a significant impact on human society in terms of general damage, human casualties and overall social disruption. Taking into account all of these considerations, four types of flood events can be generally characterized as extreme flood events, including: (1) dam-break floods (Duffaut 2013;Bergman et al 2014;Raška and Emmer 2014), (2) storm surges (Chau et al 2013;Breilh et al 2014;Androulidakis et al 2015), (3) flash floods (Moussa and Bocquillon 2009;Martínez Ibarra 2012;Foulds et al 2014;Amengual et al 2015;Kvočka et al 2015), and (4) extreme/large river floods (Zhi-Yong et al 2013;Bruwier et al 2015;Herget et al 2015;Schröter et al 2015;Antico et al 2016). Among these types of extreme flood events, flash floods and large river floods are the most common and generally the most serious extreme events (Ashley and Ashley 2008;Di Baldassarre et al 2010), which pose the greatest flood risk to the general population.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Flood hazard assessment for extreme flood events

2016

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Climate change is expected to result in an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. In turn, this will result in more frequent occurrences of extreme flood events, such as flash flooding and large-scale river flooding. This being the case, there is a need for more accurate flood risk assessment schemes, particularly in areas prone to extreme flooding. This study investigates what type of flood hazard assessment methods should be used for assessing the flood hazard to people caused by extreme flooding. Two flood hazard assessment criteria were tested, namely: a widely used, empirically derived method, and recently introduced, physically based and experimentally calibrated method. The two selected flood hazard assessment methods were: (1) validated against experimental data, and (2) used to assess flood hazard indices for two different extreme flood events, namely: the 2010 Kostanjevica na Krki extreme river flood and the 2007 Ž elezniki flash flood. The results obtained in this study suggest that in the areas prone to extreme flooding, the flood hazard indices should be based on using the formulae derived for a mechanics-based analysis, as these formulations consider all of the physical forces acting on a human body in floodwaters, take into account the rapid changes in the flow regime, which often occur for extreme flood events, and enable a rapid assessment of the degree of flood hazard risk in a short time period, a feature particularly important when assessing flood hazard indices for high Froude numbers flows.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Flood hazard assessment for extreme flood events

2016

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“…Recent studies show the promise of adopting streamflow ensemble forecast techniques due to advantages over deterministic forecasts (Habets et al, 2004;Younis et al, 2008;Boucher et al, 2011;Schellekens et al, 2011;Verkade and Werner, 2011;Alfieri et al, 2013) as well as a way of accounting for uncertainties in hydrological forecasting (Chen and Yu, 2007;Demeritt et al, 2007;Davolio et al, 2008;Pappenberger et al, 2008;Reggiani and Weerts, 2008;Cloke and Pappenberger, 2009;Bao et al, 2011;Bogner and Pappenberger, 2011;Cuo et al, 2011;Schellekens et al, 2011;Alfieri et al, 2012;Amengual et al, 2015). Other advantages include the ability to distinguish between an extreme event forecast that is more or less likely to occur within the model's forecast horizon (Buizza, 2008;Golding, 2009) and better decision making with respect to operational hydrological concerns McCollor and Stull, 2008;Boucher et al, 2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A retrospective streamflow ensemble forecast for an extreme hydrologic event: a case study of Hurricane Irene and on the Hudson River basin

Saleh

Ramaswamy

Georgas

et al. 2016

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…This case has been documented during the HyMex 15 campaign within an Intensive Observing Period, IOP8 (Amengual et al, 2015). About ten casualties have been deplored and damage has been estimated to more than 120 Meuros.…”

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confidence: 99%

“…Therefore, this channel partially diverts large runoff discharges from the Guadalentín River into the Mediterranean Sea. Further details on the Guadalentín and databases can be found in Amengual et al (2015).…”

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confidence: 99%

“…Guadalentín basins, respectively. The Guadalentín and Llobregat are an archetype of Spanish Mediterranean catchments that are recurrently affected by flooding (for further details, see Amengual et al (2007Amengual et al ( , 2009Amengual et al ( , 2015 ). The Guadalentín river basin is located in Murcia while the Llobregat watershed is located in Catalonia, south and north-eastern Spain respectively( Fig.…”

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Flash-flood forecasting in two Spanish Mediterranean catchments: a comparison of distinct hydrometeorological ensemble prediction strategies

Vincendon

Amengual

2017

Preprint

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Abstract. Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Systems (HEPSs) are becoming more and more popular methods to deal with the meteorological and hydrological uncertainties that affect discharge forecasts. These uncertainties are particularly difficult to handle when dealing with Mediterranean flash-flood forecasting as many hydrological and meteorological factors take place and precipitation comes from small scale convective systems. In this work, the performances of distinct HEPS are compared for two heavy precipitation events that affected two different semi-arid Spanish Mediterranean catchments : the cases of the The latter case corresponds to the IOP8 of HYMEX field campaign. The uncertainty on quantitative precipitation forecasting is sampled by using two different meteorological ensemble generation strategies. First, a convection-permitting EPS, which consists in dynamically downscaling the ECMWF-EPS directly by means of the WRF model. The second EPS strategy is based on the AROME-WMED convective-scale model. Its deterministic QPFs are perturbed based on a previous rainfall 10 forecast error climatology and by using the probability density functions of the errors, in term of total amounts and location of the heaviest rainfalls. The population of both ensembles is of 50 members, which are used to drive the HEC-HMS and ISBA-TOP hydrological models. For each HEPS, the performance is assessed in term of the quantitative discharge forecasts.The results point out the benefits of using (i) a hydrological model when evaluating highly-variable and convective-driven precipitation fields and (ii) an EPS to better encompass these uncertainties arising from different level of the HEPS. Issues 15 about the optimal number of ensemble members and impact of the ensemble forecasting lead time are addressed for optimal flash-flood forecasting purposes as well.

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Potential of a probabilistic hydrometeorological forecasting approach for the 28 September 2012 extreme flash flood in Murcia, Spain

Cited by 33 publications

References 47 publications

Flood hazard assessment for extreme flood events

Flood hazard assessment for extreme flood events

A retrospective streamflow ensemble forecast for an extreme hydrologic event: a case study of Hurricane Irene and on the Hudson River basin

Flash-flood forecasting in two Spanish Mediterranean catchments: a comparison of distinct hydrometeorological ensemble prediction strategies

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