Potential Output from a Euro Area Perspective

Anderton, Robert; Aranki, Ted; Dieppe, Alistair; Elding, Catherine; Haroutunian, Stephan; Jacquinot, Pascal; Jarvis, Valerie; Labhard, Vincent; Rusinova, Desislava; Szörfi, Béla

doi:10.2139/ssrn.2493145

Cited by 9 publications

(1 citation statement)

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“…V rámci organizace OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) je mnohdy využíván přístup založený na produkční funkci. Nejčastěji je odhadována Cobbova-Douglasova Articles Potenciální produkt a mezera výstupu v období ekonomických krizí produkční funkce (Havik et al, 2010) či CES (Constant Elasticity of Substitution) produkční funkce s konstantní elasticitou substituce (Anderton et al, 2014).…”

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Potential Output and Output Gap in a Period of Economic Crises

Čížků¹

2023

Politicka ekonomie

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Potential Output and Output Gap in a Period of Economic CrisesThe article investigates potential output and output gap modelling and estimation in the Czech Republic in the period 1996-2021, including the global recession from 2008 and the recent crisis caused by government measures against the COVID-19 pandemic. The unobserved components (UC) methodology is applied, coefficients are estimated by the maximum likelihood method, unobserved variables are estimated using the Kalman filter. The standard UC model is modified in an original way to nonlinearly describe the hysteresis effect by allowing the output gap to have an asymmetrical influence on potential output. The econometric model verification proved significance of the hysteresis effect and showed a substantial inertia of negative consequences of both crises. Predictions of an impact of the War in Ukraine on the gap were also calculated and the uncertainty associated with these predictions was quantified.

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Potential Output and Output Gap in a Period of Economic Crises

Čížků¹

2023

Politicka ekonomie

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Revisiting the countercyclicality of fiscal policy

Jalles,

Kiendrebeogo,

Lam

et al. 2024

Empir Econ

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This paper provides a novel dataset of time-varying measures on the degree of countercyclicality of fiscal policies for advanced and developing economies between 1980 and 2021. The use of time-varying measures of fiscal stabilization, with special attention to potential endogeneity issues, overcomes the major limitation of previous studies and allows the analysis to account for both country-specific as well as global factors. The paper also examines the key determinants of countercyclicality of fiscal policy with a focus on factors as severe crises, informality, financial development and governance. Empirical results show that (i) fiscal policy tends to be more countercyclical during severe crises than typical recessions, especially for advanced economies; (ii) fiscal countercyclicality has increased over time for many economies over the last two decades; (iii) discretionary and automatic countercyclicality are both strong in advanced economies but acyclical (at times procyclical) in low-income countries; (iv) fiscal countercyclicality operates primarily through the expenditure channel, particularly for social benefits; and (v) better financial development, larger government size and stronger institutional quality are associated with larger countercyclical effects of fiscal policy. Our results are robust to various specifications and endogeneity checks.

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Konjunkturbereinigung in der Schuldenbremse reformieren: Revisionen erst zeitverzögert einrechnen

2022

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In this article, we point out requirements for potential output estimates used for cyclical adjustment in the German debt brake. Further, we propose supplementing the cyclical component in the debt break with an error term — regardless of the specific potential output estimation approach. The error term provides fiscal policy more time to adjust to potential output revisions and tax revenue forecast errors. Simulations based on past data show that the error term reduces erratic budgetary adjustments and strengthens automatic stabilisers.

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Potential Output from a Euro Area Perspective

Cited by 9 publications

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Potential Output and Output Gap in a Period of Economic Crises

Potential Output and Output Gap in a Period of Economic Crises

Revisiting the countercyclicality of fiscal policy

Konjunkturbereinigung in der Schuldenbremse reformieren: Revisionen erst zeitverzögert einrechnen

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