Potential Range Shift of Snow Leopard in Future Climate Change Scenarios

Abstract

The snow leopard (Panthera uncia) lives in alpine ecosystems in Central Asia, where it could face intensive climate change and is thus a major conservation concern. We compiled a dataset of 406 GPS-located occurrences based on field surveys, literature, and the GBIF database. We used Random Forest to build different species distribution models with a maximum of 27 explanatory variables, including climatic, topographical, and human impact variables, to predict potential distribution for the snow leopard and make climate change projections. We estimated the potential range shifts of the snow leopard under two global climate models for different representative concentration pathways for 2050 and 2070. We found the distribution center of the snow leopard may move northwest by about 200 km and may move upward in elevation by about 100 m by 2070. Unlike previous studies on the range shifts of the snow leopard, we highlighted that upward rather than northward range shifts are the main pathways for the snow leopard in the changing climate, since the landform of their habitat allows an upward shift, whereas mountains and valleys would block northward movement. Conservation of the snow leopard should therefore prioritize protecting its current habitat over making movement corridors.

Identification of mammalian indicators of climate in Chitwan Annapurna Landscape (CHAL) to assess climate change

“…However, altitude does not directly impact habitat suitability, it indirectly influences Panthera distribution through temperature (Aryal et al, 2014). A further study by Aryal et al (2016) acknowledged that annual mean temperature is the major climatic factor responsible for controlling the distribution of snow leopards in energy-deficient, high-altitude environments.Potential Range Shift of Snow Leopard in Future Climate Change Scenarios by Li et al (2022) found that snow leopards would move northwest by about 200 km in 2070 in two global climate models for different representative concentration pathways. Also, climate can markedly affect predators through its impact on the relative timing of food requirements and food availability (Durant et al, 2007) as the prey of the snow leopard like blue sheep will be reduced under future climate change (Aryal et al, 2016) which leads to food availability.…”

A Case Study of the Snow Leopard in Sanjiangyuan National Park Boundaries regarding Park Boundary Divergence

“…Snow leopards inhabit the mountainous regions of Central Asia, where they are thinly distributed across a vast area in excess of 1.2 million km 2 [45]. The habitat range of snow leopard has changed significantly in recent years because of global warming [46]; nature reserves protect 38.78% of currently suitable habitats and will protect 42.56% of future suitable habitats [47]. This also implies that more than half of snow leopards are distributed outside nature reserves.…”

Mammal Status: Diversity, Abundance and Dynamics: An Editorial

“…The aim of the Editorial is to introduce the Special Issue, "Mammal Status: Diversity, Abundance and Dynamics", which includes six papers from Europe [1][2][3][4][5][6], three of these representing Baltic countries [4][5][6], two papers from Asia [7,8] and one from South America [9]. Four papers deal with carnivores (the snow leopard, gray wolf, Eurasian lynx, and Eurasian otter), two with ungulates (moose and Andean tapir), two with small mammals (including the endangered European ground squirrel), and one with the wide mammal complex, including many small and medium carnivores in Indonesia.…”

“…Another threatened species, the snow leopard (Panthera uncia), in the alpine ecosystems of Central Asia, is mainly threatened by intensive climate change. As the model predicted the shift of the distribution center of the species (northwestward and upward in elevation), conservation measures should be focused rather on the protection of the current habitat, not to the creation of movement corridors [8].…”