Potential reduction of Hartweg´s Pine (Pinus hartwegii Lindl.) geographic distribution

Abstract

Geographical distribution of forest species is closely regulated by environmental conditions, particularly temperature and precipitation. Climate change predicted by general circulation models is expected to modify the distribution of many species' distribution, especially those adapted to extreme environmental conditions, leading to large-scale migrations or local extinctions. The aim of this research was to determine the potential impact of climatic change on Pinus hartwegii geographic distribution and the niche breadth of its populations. Ecological niche models were used by generated with four different algorithms based on 19 bioclimatic variables in addition to altitude. Climatic niche breadth was delimited by the dispersion of species occurrence records within the intervals of the bioclimatic variables. We modelled future distribution based on three general circulation models, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, CCSM4 and HadGEM2-ES, using two representative concentration pathways (RCP) 2.6 and 8.5, for two-time horizons 2050 and 2070. Niche breadth analysis showed narrow ranges of suitability, indicating a strong relationship between the presence of P. hartwegii with the temperature of the warmest quarter and precipitation of the coldest quarter. In addition, the suitability area of P. hartwegii is predicted to be reduced up to 70% by 2070; the populations of the extreme northern and southern latitudes will be reduced in greater proportion than those of central Mexico. This suggest that environmental suitability area of P. hartwegii are reduced by the effect of the increase in environmental temperature. Therefore, it is necessary to monitor extreme populations of this species in the long term in order to establish efficient conservation strategies and well adaptive management facing climate change.

Libro de Autoría colectiva “Innovación Educativa” Vol.1 Núm. 6

“…No es un tema nuevo de estudio hablar sobre el perfil profesional de un docente, puesto que durante varios años se ha investigado sobre el tema, sin embargo, su importancia incrementa conforme el avance tecnológico de la sociedad actual. El perfil profesional es un tema de gran relevancia para el desempeño de un profesor y, por ende, del proceso de enseñanza aprendizaje ya que constituye la piedra angular de la interrelación entre alumnos y docentes (Espinoza et al, 2019) de una manera tal que, la dinámica del proceso educativo se ve reflejado en la calidad del educador (Alfaro et al, 2008).…”

“…Entre tanto, para Alfaro et al (2008) el perfil docente es una arista importante de la relación entre estudiantes y profesores y afecta, de manera importante y dinámica, en el proceso educativo, incidiendo en su calidad. Así, está conformado por rasgos específicos que definen al profesor a través de un juicio integral de capacidades relacionales, cognitivas y emocionales que son manifestadas en la actividad educativa.…”

Water and Carbon Dynamics, Ecosystem Stability of Forest and Grassland in Response to Climate Change

“…Since its biological and ecological processes are adapted to extreme low temperatures, P. hartwegii has been pointed out as a particularly vulnerable tree species to global warming. Under projected climate trends, the distribution area suitable for P. hartwegii could be reduced by 30-70% in the next 50 years (Alfaro-Ramıŕez et al, 2020). This will undoubtedly have important consequences in many different contexts and spatial scales.…”

Phenotypic plasticity of growth ring traits in Pinus hartwegii at the ends of its elevational gradient

“…Since its biological and ecological processes are adapted to extreme low temperatures, P. hartwegii has been pointed out as a particularly vulnerable tree species to global warming. Under projected climate trends, the distribution area suitable for P. hartwegii could be reduced by 30-70% in the next 50 years ( Alfaro-Ramírez et al., 2020 ). This will undoubtedly have important consequences in many different contexts and spatial scales.…”