Potential role of energetic particle observations in geomagnetic storm forecasting

Ameri, Dheyaa; Валтонен, Э.

doi:10.1016/j.asr.2019.05.012

Cited by 4 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 57 publications

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“…As shown in Figure 2, 75% of the SEP events were associated with the geomagnetic storms of Dst ≤ 50 nT. This result confirms the conclusion of Ameri and Valtonen (2019) that 68% of 95 SEP events were related to geomagnetic storms with Dst ≤ 50 nT. The previous authors used mainly the proton measurements of the Energetic and Relativistic Nuclei and Electron experiment (ERNE) aboard the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) from 1996 to 2017 to forecast the geomagnetic storm occurrences.…”

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 86%

Geomagnetic Storm Effects on the LEO Proton Flux During Solar Energetic Particle Events

Girgis,

Hada,

Yoshikawa

et al. 2023

Space Weather

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During a few solar energetic particle (SEP) events, solar protons were trapped within the geomagnetic field and reached the outer edge of the inner radiation belt. We reproduced this phenomenon by modeling the proton flux distribution at the Low‐Earth Orbit (LEO) for different geomagnetic conditions during solar particle events. We developed a three‐dimensional relativistic test particle simulation code to compute the 70–180 MeV solar proton Lorentz trajectories in low L‐shell range from 1 to 3. The Tsyganenko model (T01) generated the background static magnetic field with the IGRF (v12) model. We have selected three Dst index values: −7, −150, and −210 nT, to define quiet time, strong, and severe geomagnetic storms and to generate the corresponding inner magnetic field configurations. Our results showed that the simulated solar proton flux was more enhanced in the high‐latitude regions and more expanded toward the lower latitude range as long as the geomagnetic storm was intensified. Satellite observations and geomagnetic cutoff rigidities confirmed the numerical results. Furthermore, the LEO proton flux distribution was deformed, so the structure of the proton flux inside the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) became longitudinally extended as the Dst index decreased. Moreover, we have assessed the corresponding radiation environment of the LEO mission. We realized that, for a higher inclined LEO mission during an intense geomagnetic storm (Dst = −210 nT), the probability of the occurrence of the Single Event Upset (SEU) rates increased by 19% and the estimated accumulated absorbed radiation doses increased by 17% in comparison with quiet conditions.

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Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 86%

Geomagnetic Storm Effects on the LEO Proton Flux During Solar Energetic Particle Events

Girgis,

Hada,

Yoshikawa

et al. 2023

Space Weather

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“…In the past, only the very strong SEPs did highly affect the L < 3 region due to the injection of energetic protons (Baker et al., 2018). Note that SEP events are not always associated to geomagnetic storms: around 75% of the SEP events from 1978 to 2022 are followed by geomagnetic storms with Disturbed Storm Time index Dst < −50 nT during the next 3 days (Ameri & Valtonen, 2019), but this is not systematic, as shown in the last column of Table 2.…”

Section: Time Evolution Of Proton Fluxes Since Proba‐v/ept Launchmentioning

confidence: 99%

Proton Flux Variations During Solar Energetic Particle Events, Minimum and Maximum Solar Activity, and Splitting of the Proton Belt in the South Atlantic Anomaly

et al. 2023

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The South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) is an area where Earth's magnetic field is particularly low. This comes from the fact that the Earth's magnetic axis is tilted with respect to the Earth's rotation axis by an angle of approximately 11° and that the axis of the magnetic idealized dipole is located some 400 km away from the Earth's center (Brekke, 2013). As a consequence, the SAA is also a region where inner radiation belt particles can mirror at lower altitudes increasing the local particle flux.Unlike the geographic poles, Earth's magnetic poles are not fixed and tend to wander over time, and in parallel, the intensity of Earth's magnetic field is varying over time, for example, presently decreasing (Brekke, 2013). Hence the SAA has been drifting and growing in recent years (Amit et al., 2021;Anderson et al., 2018;Stassinopoulos et al., 2015), and those secular trends have an effect on the inner belt, especially as observed at Low Earth Orbit (LEO) (Girgis et al., 2021).In addition to secular drifts, the inner belt particles are affected by solar cycle variation. In fact, the low-altitude geomagnetically trapped population is known to be coupled to the atmospheric density through changes induced by solar activity (Anderson et al., 2018;Bruno et al., 2021b). Protons with energies above a few tens of MeV mostly originate through the Cosmic-Ray Albedo Neutron Decay (CRAND) mechanism. Because the CRAND source comes mostly from low geomagnetic latitudes due to high cutoff rigidities, the solar modulation of the cosmic rays has a relatively small effect on the variability of the trapped protons (Bruno et al., 2021b). The major variations are due to the atmospheric loss processes, including ionization and scattering of neutral and ionized atoms, induced by solar extreme ultraviolet (EUV) radiation heating the Earth's upper atmosphere. In fact, increased EUV during solar maxima leads to higher neutral and ionospheric densities, causing a decrease of proton fluxes concentrated at low altitudes and L shells.One of the particularities of the particle fluxes at low altitudes is that the high-energy trapped proton fluxes are strongly anisotropic, that is, the proton fluxes depend on their arrival direction in the plane perpendicular to the local magnetic field vector as well as on their pitch angle (angle between their velocity vector and

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“…About 75% of IP shocks have energetic protons in the keV range, while the fraction drops to 45% in the MeV range [36]. A recent survey [37] identifies 95 ESP events accompanying SEP events during the years 1996-2017 using detection at two energy channels at 2 and 20 MeV. Over this period, about 400 IP shocks have been detected at L1.…”

Section: Energetic Storm Particle Eventsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Solar activity and space weather

Gopalswamy

Mäkelä

Yashiro

et al. 2022

J. Phys.: Conf. Ser.

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After providing an overview of solar activity as measured by the sunspot number (SSN) and space weather events during solar cycles (SCs) 21-24, we focus on the weak solar activity in SC 24. The weak solar activity reduces the number of energetic eruptions from the Sun and hence the number of space weather events. The speeds of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), interplanetary (IP) shocks, and the background solar wind all declined in SC 24. One of the main heliospheric consequences of weak solar activity is the reduced total (magnetic + gas) pressure, magnetic field strength, and Alfvén speed. There are three groups of phenomena that decline to different degrees in SC 24 relative to the corresponding ones in SC 23: (i) those that decline more than SSN does, (ii) those that decline like SSN, and (iii) those that decline less than SSN does. The decrease in the number of severe space weather events such as high-energy solar energetic particle (SEP) events and intense geomagnetic storms is deeper than the decline in SSN. The reduction in the number of severe space weather events can be explained by the backreaction of the weak heliosphere on CMEs. CMEs expand anomalously and hence their magnetic content is diluted resulting in weaker geomagnetic storms. The reduction in the number of intense geomagnetic storms caused by corotating interaction regions is also drastic. The diminished heliospheric magnetic field in SC 24 reduces the efficiency of particle acceleration, resulting in fewer high-energy SEP events. The numbers of IP type II radio bursts, IP socks, and high-intensity energetic storm particle events closely follow the number of fast and wide CMEs (and approximately SSN) because all these phenomena are closely related to CME-driven shocks. The number of halo CMEs in SC 24 declines less than SSN does, mainly due to the weak heliospheric state. Phenomena such as IP CMEs and magnetic clouds related to frontside halos also do not decline significantly. The mild space weather is likely to continue in SC 25, whose strength has been predicted to be not too different from that of SC 24.

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Potential role of energetic particle observations in geomagnetic storm forecasting

Cited by 4 publications

References 57 publications

Geomagnetic Storm Effects on the LEO Proton Flux During Solar Energetic Particle Events

Geomagnetic Storm Effects on the LEO Proton Flux During Solar Energetic Particle Events

Proton Flux Variations During Solar Energetic Particle Events, Minimum and Maximum Solar Activity, and Splitting of the Proton Belt in the South Atlantic Anomaly

Solar activity and space weather

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