Potential scenarios for the progression of a COVID-19 epidemic in the European Union and the European Economic Area, March 2020

Johnson, Helen; Gossner, Céline M; Colzani, Edoardo; Kinsman, John; Alexakis, Leonidas; Beauté, Julien; Würz, Andrea; Tsolova, Svetla; Bundle, Nick; Ekdahl, Karl

doi:10.2807/1560-7917.es.2020.25.9.2000202

Cited by 78 publications

(79 citation statements)

References 5 publications

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“…To date, spread of COVID-19 has been minimal in high income southern hemisphere countries such as Australia and New Zealand, which were in their summer season when the first cases were reported at the end of January and February, respectively (4,5). There has been much speculation about whether warmer temperatures are associated with decreased COVID-19 transmission, similar to what is observed for many viral respiratory infections (6). Higher temperatures were shown to have a protective effect against transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in 2002-2003 (7), possibly due to the decreased survival of the SARS-CoV on surfaces at higher temperatures (8).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 82%

Evidence That Higher Temperatures Are Associated With a Marginally Lower Incidence of COVID-19 Cases

Meyer¹,

Sadler

Faverjon³

et al. 2020

Front. Public Health

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Seasonal variations in COVID-19 incidence have been suggested as a potentially important factor in the future trajectory of the pandemic. Using global line-list data on COVID-19 cases reported until 17th of March 2020 and global gridded weather data, we assessed the effects of air temperature and relative humidity on the daily incidence of confirmed COVID-19 local cases at the subnational level (first-level administrative divisions). After adjusting for surveillance capacity and time since first imported case, average temperature had a statistically significant, negative association with COVID-19 incidence for temperatures of −15 • C and above. However, temperature only explained a relatively modest amount of the total variation in COVID-19 cases. The effect of relative humidity was not statistically significant. These results suggest that warmer weather may modestly reduce the rate of spread of COVID-19, but anticipation of a substantial decline in transmission due to temperature alone with onset of summer in the northern hemisphere, or in tropical regions, is not warranted by these findings.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 82%

Evidence That Higher Temperatures Are Associated With a Marginally Lower Incidence of COVID-19 Cases

Meyer¹,

Sadler

Faverjon³

et al. 2020

Front. Public Health

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“…Shortly after the identification of SARS-CoV-2 specific realtime RT-PCR protocols were set up and have been distributed worldwide (4,5). The availability of rapid and reliable diagnostics for early case detection is instrumental in an outbreak scenario (6). From a public health perspective an easy to establish and cost effective laboratory-based screening strategy may assist in rapid case detection, surveillance and ultimately in a better understanding of this epidemic (7).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ad hoc laboratory-based surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 by real-time RT-PCR using minipools of RNA prepared from routine respiratory samples

Eis‐Hübinger

Hönemann

Wenzel

et al. 2020

Journal of Clinical Virology

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Highlights: A laboratory-based surveillance tool for SARS-CoV-2 was established  It consists of minipool testing of nucleic acid preparations  Limit of detection was 48 copies per reaction (95% confidence interval: 33 -184)  A protocol was distributed among five German university hospitals J o u r n a l P r e -p r o o f  The approach proved its principle and one COVID-19 case was detected in 70 minipools Abstract: Background: A novel coronavirus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), emerged in China in late 2019 and subsequently caused a pandemic. Surveillance is important to better appreciate this evolving pandemic and to longitudinally monitor the effectiveness of public health measures. Objectives: We aimed to provide a rapid, easy to establish and costeffective laboratory-based surveillance tool for SARS-CoV-2. Study design: We used minipools of RNA prepared from nucleic acid extractions of routine respiratory samples. We technically validated the assay and distributed the protocol within an informal network of five German university laboratories. Results: We tested a total of 70 minipools resembling 700 samples shortly before the upsurge of cases in Germany from 17.02.2020-10.03.2020. One minipool reacted positive and after resolution one individual sample tested SARS-COV-2 positive. This sample was from a hospitalized patient not suspected of having contracted SARS-CoV-2. Conclusions: Our approach of a laboratory-based surveillance for SARSCoV-2 using minipools proved its concept is easily adaptable and resource-saving. It might assist not only public health laboratories in SARS-CoV-2 surveillance. Investigation, Formal J o u r n a l P r e -p r o o f

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“…Therefore, research institutes and public health o cials should continue working together to evaluate and guide the updates on the strategies for intervention and control [12] .As the short-term containment is costeffective than the long-term measures for containment; it is advisable, so far, to focus on the control efforts against COVID-19 by active surveillance and contact tracing. This is expected to delay wide spread community transmission, reduce peak incidence, and lift the pressure on public services.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Epidemic Response and Transmission Dynamics of Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) in Khartoum State- Sudan 2020: Study Protocol

Elnimeiri

Ibrahim

Satti

2020

Preprint

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Background: A novel Coronavirus was identified as severe acute respiratory syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), and the syndrome of clinical manifestation was named (COVID-19). Consequently, on Jan 30, 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the outbreak as a pandemic and a public health emergency of international concern. The objectives of this research are to investigate the response of the health system at different levels towards the control of the COVID-19 epidemic and to explore the COVID-19 transmission dynamics among Sudanese community. Methods: A community and institutional-based cross sectional based study will be conducted in Khartoum State include all the seven localities. The sample size of participant is estimated at 920 using the population formula (n=N/1+ (n*d2)) and considering the response rate. The sample will be drawn using multistage cluster sampling. Data will be collected using interview with key informant and concerned bodies/institutes involved in the response at both the federal and Khartoum State levels. Administered pre-coded, pretested closed ended questionnaire will be developed to collect data from community participants. Data will be managed and analyzed using Statistical Package for Social Sciences version 21. Analysis is mostly univariate descriptive and bi-variate with Chi Square & Fischer Exact tests analysis to find associations between variables of interest.Discussion: This study is expected to evaluate the extent and magnitude of the epidemic response at different levels in addition to the adequacy of the epidemic response. The study participants will be screened to estimate proportion of individuals per age strata who show sero-positivity for virus infection, thus it will estimate the percentages of individuals reporting symptoms/signs of infection and asymptomatic fraction. The results of this study will strengthen the current interventional approaches of COVID-19 epidemic control and will provide set of database for better planning and implementation of COVID-19 control across the country. It will contribute to in-depth understanding of the COVID-19 transmission dynamics among Sudanese community and will improve the community awareness about COVID-19.

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Potential scenarios for the progression of a COVID-19 epidemic in the European Union and the European Economic Area, March 2020

Cited by 78 publications

References 5 publications

Evidence That Higher Temperatures Are Associated With a Marginally Lower Incidence of COVID-19 Cases

Evidence That Higher Temperatures Are Associated With a Marginally Lower Incidence of COVID-19 Cases

Ad hoc laboratory-based surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 by real-time RT-PCR using minipools of RNA prepared from routine respiratory samples

Epidemic Response and Transmission Dynamics of Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) in Khartoum State- Sudan 2020: Study Protocol

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