Potential socio-economic implications of future climate change and variability for Nigerien agriculture: A countrywide dynamic CGE-Microsimulation analysis

Montaud, Jean-Marc; Pécastaing, Nicolas; Tankari, Mahamadou Roufahi

doi:10.1016/j.econmod.2017.02.005

Cited by 23 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 46 publications

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“…The literature identifies two approaches to estimate sectoral emission at a country scale: top-down and bottom-up. The top-down approach considers a country as an economy and divides its functions for a sector to estimate the emissions from a demand and supply equilibrium (Antimiani et al, 2015;Chen et al, 2016;Li and Jia, 2016;Montaud et al, 2017). Compound General Equilibrium (CGE) is one of the models developed based on a top-down approach where various components of the economy such as labour, market, and consumer interact (Antimiani et al, 2015).…”

Section: Conceptual Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Compound General Equilibrium (CGE) is one of the models developed based on a top-down approach where various components of the economy such as labour, market, and consumer interact (Antimiani et al, 2015). Such models help assess shifts in emissions as a result of a policy implementation (Antimiani et al, 2015;Chen et al, 2016;Li and Jia, 2016;Montaud et al, 2017). The top-down approach does not incorporate details related to technologies and their specific emissions making it unsuitable for the purpose of this study.…”

Section: Conceptual Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…On the other hand, various emerging technologies and improvements along with their associated costs have been assessed by Hasanbeigi et al (2012) to understand their role in the future industrial development. Cement and Steel manufacturing have been addressed together using a bottom-up ap-proach, where energy efficiency improvements, CO 2 emissions reductions and related costs are considered (Morrow et al, 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Potential climate change mitigation of Indian Construction Industry through a shift in energy efficient technology by 2050

Jajal

Mishra

2018

Adv. Geosci.

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Abstract. Climate change is a growing concern that is attracting international efforts. India, as a developing country, has committed to reducing its emission intensity of GDP up to 30 %–35 % by 2030. The emission intense sectors would be targeted to achieve climate commitment. One of the emission intense sector is construction raw material manufacturing that contributes 10 % share in the total emissions making it one of the potential mitigation sector. The study examines emissions from the construction raw materials namely, cement, steel, and brick manufacturing and presents two emission scenarios up to 2050. Energy efficient scenario (S2) is compared with a reference scenario (S1) developed based on a bottom-up approach. The results indicate that a moderate energy efficiency improvements and technological shifts lead to a decrease in emissions of 72 MT CO2 by 2030 and 137 MT CO2 by 2050. Further, the steel industry has the highest reduction potential, as the current technologies are energy inefficient. Similarly, the current dependency on fired bricks may be shifted to cement setting blocks leading to emission reductions. Cement manufacturing, on the other hand, shows limited scope for emission reduction that may be achieved through energy efficiency improvements. Efforts towards energy efficiency improvements in construction raw material manufacturing would result in reductions beyond the existing commitment of the Paris Agreement for India by 2030.

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Section: Conceptual Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Conceptual Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Potential climate change mitigation of Indian Construction Industry through a shift in energy efficient technology by 2050

Jajal

Mishra

2018

Adv. Geosci.

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“…Climate change has already affected global ecosystems, biodiversity, and social economy [1], and the impacts are likely to be more pronounced in the future [2]. IPCC Fifth Assessment Report has pointed out that global climate change is undoubtable [3].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Climate Change on the Growth of Typical Crops in Karst Areas: A Case Study of Guizhou Province

Weng

et al. 2019

Advances in Meteorology

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Climate change has emerged as a significant man-made global environmental challenge marked by rising temperature. The global rising temperature is supposed to alter climatic patterns like floods and droughts, thereby affecting human life supporting system and global food production. In order to clarify the impact of weather events on agricultural production in karst landforms, this study selected the indices of the growth period of crops (start time and duration), growing season precipitation, intense precipitation, number of consecutive rainless days, and number of drought-flood abrupt alternation events to evaluate the variation trend of future weather events and their impact on crop growth in Guizhou Province, China. The results show that (1) the climate is generally getting warmer. From 2019 to 2050, the sowing period of winter wheat and rice tends to be postponed. The duration of maize and rice’s growth period will be shortened, and the life cycle of wheat also emerges as having a decreasing tendency except for those from the southern region. Comparing with the mean value during 1961 to 2018, the average crop cycle length of winter wheat, summer maize, and rice was shortened. The rate of shortening of crop cycle length is faster than the value during 1961 to 2018. (2) In the next 30 years, extreme precipitation concentrates in June and mainly falls in the central and southeast parts of Guizhou Province. In addition, summer is the outbreak period of drought events and drought-flood abrupt alternation events, which has a great impact on crop’s growth. This study can provide references for the planting system, structure, layout, and management of crops in the karst region.

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“…They found that those hit hardest by losses were net buyers of food (even among food producers) and that, at the macro level, the positive effects of climate-change-mitigation efforts on yields and GDP were cancelled out by their cost. Montaud et al (2017) applied macro-modeling to the effects of climate variability on agriculture in Niger and found that, although GDP and other economic indicators would all be affected negatively, investments in rural road infrastructure and modern crop varieties could offset those effects in part. Sudarshan et al (2017) quantified the effects of climate change on the Nepalese economy, finding that the population's high dependence on subsistence farming increased poverty and further strained the social-welfare system.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate risk and food availability in Guatemala

Vargas¹,

Cabrera²,

Cicowiez

et al. 2018

Envir. Dev. Econ.

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In this paper, we use a computable general equilibrium model to simulate the effects of drought and a decrease in agricultural productivity caused by climate change in Guatemala. A reduction in agricultural productivity would mean a considerable drop in crop and livestock production, and the resulting higher prices and lower household income would mean a significant reduction in the consumption of agricultural goods and food. The most negative effects of a drought would be concentrated in agriculture, given its intensive use of water. Because agricultural production is essential to ensuring food availability, these results suggest that Guatemala needs a proper water-distribution regulatory framework.

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Potential socio-economic implications of future climate change and variability for Nigerien agriculture: A countrywide dynamic CGE-Microsimulation analysis

Cited by 23 publications

References 46 publications

Potential climate change mitigation of Indian Construction Industry through a shift in energy efficient technology by 2050

Potential climate change mitigation of Indian Construction Industry through a shift in energy efficient technology by 2050

Impact of Climate Change on the Growth of Typical Crops in Karst Areas: A Case Study of Guizhou Province

Climate risk and food availability in Guatemala

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