Potentially Suitable Geographical Area for Monochamus alternatus under Current and Future Climatic Scenarios Based on Optimized MaxEnt Model

Gao, Ruihe; Liu, Lei; Zhao, Lijuan; Cui, Shaopeng

doi:10.3390/insects14020182

Cited by 18 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 53 publications

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“…The average value of the MaxEnt model output results was imported into ArcGIS, and the "asc" format file was converted into raster data using the conversion tool [63]. The natural breaks (Jenks) method was used to reclassify the results of the simulated T. nanus' suitable area, which was divided into four suitable levels: an unsuitable area (0-0.2), a less suitable area (0.2-0.4), a medially suitable area (0.4-0.6), and a highly suitable area (0.6-1) [64,65]. The projection coordinate system chosen in this study was the WGS 1984 UTM Zone 48N and the proportion and area of each level of the suitability area were calculated.…”

Section: Classification Of Potentially Suitable Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Response of Extremely Small Populations to Climate Change—A Case of Trachycarpus nanus in Yunnan, China

Wang,

et al. 2024

Biology

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Climate change affects the geographical distribution of plant species. Rare Trachycarpus nanus with a narrow distribution range, high medicinal value and extremely small population is facing increasing extinction risks under global climate change. In this study, 96 recorded occurrences and 23 environmental factors are used to predict the potential suitable area of T. nanus based on the optimized MaxEnt (3.4.4) model and ArcGIS (10.7) software. The results show that when the parameters are FC = LQ and RM = 1, the MaxEnt model is optimal and AUC = 0.946. The distribution patterns were predicted in the past, present, and four future phases, i.e., 2021–2040 (2030), 2041–2060 (2050), 2061–2080 (2070), and 2081–2100 (2090). The main factors are the annual precipitation (bio12), mean temperature of the coldest quarter (bio11), temperature seasonality (bio4), precipitation of the wettest quarter (bio16), and isothermality (bio3). The potential distribution of T. nanus is primarily concentrated in central Chuxiong, encompassing a total potential suitable area of 5.65 × 104 km2. In historical periods, the total habitat area is smaller than that in the present. In the future, the potential suitable area is generally increased. The centroid analysis shows that T. nanus will move to a high-altitude area and to the southeast. But its dispersal capacity may not keep up with the climate change rate. Therefore, additional protection sites for this species should be appropriately established and the habitat connectivity should be enhanced.

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Section: Classification Of Potentially Suitable Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Response of Extremely Small Populations to Climate Change—A Case of Trachycarpus nanus in Yunnan, China

Wang,

et al. 2024

Biology

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“…The presence of multicollinearity between EVs can lead to model overfitting. To avoid this problem, we analyzed the correlation coefficients between the 19 EVs via the Pearson correlation coefficient [41] and used 10 repeated runs of the MaxEnt model to eliminate non-contributing EVs. We retained one with a higher contribution rate in both EVs when the coefficient of correlation in two EVs was greater than 0.8 (|r| ≥ 0.8) [42] (Figure S1).…”

Section: Environmental Variablesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change Facilitates the Potentially Suitable Habitats of the Invasive Crop Insect Ectomyelois ceratoniae (Zeller)

Liu,

Yang,

et al. 2024

Atmosphere

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Invasive alien insects directly or indirectly driven by climate change threaten crop production and increase economic costs worldwide. Ectomyelois ceratoniae (Zeller) is a highly reproductive invasive crop insect that can severely damage fruit commodities and cause significant economic losses globally. Estimating the global potentially suitable habitats (PSH) of E. ceratoniae is an important aspect of its invasive risk assessment and early warning. Here, we constructed an optimized MaxEnt model based on the global distribution records of E. ceratoniae, and nine environmental variables (EVs), to predict its global PSH under current and future climates. Our results showed that the RM value was 2.0 and the mean area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) value was 0.972, indicating the high accuracy of the optimal MaxEnt model. The mean temperature of driest quarter (bio9, 50.2%), mean temperature of wettest quarter (bio8, 16.9%), temperature seasonality (bio4, 9.7%), and precipitation of coldest quarter (bio19, 9.1%) were the significant EVs affecting its distribution patterns. The global PSH of E. ceratoniae are mainly located in western Asia under current climate scenarios (687.57 × 104 km2), which showed an increasing trend under future climate scenarios. The PSH of E. ceratoniae achieved the maximum under the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) 1–2.6 in the 2030s and under the SSP2-4.5 in the 2050s. The increased PSH of E. ceratoniae are mainly located in southwestern Asia, northwestern Europe, northwestern South America, northwestern North America, southern Oceania, and northwestern Africa. Our findings suggest that quarantine officials and governmental departments in the above high-risk invasion areas should strengthen monitoring and early warning to control E. ceratoniae; in particular, cultural measures should be taken in areas where its further expansion is expected in the future.

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“…At the same time, the potential distribution will move southward, resulting in significant overlap with the current distribution of the PWN in China. This overlap may further exacerbate the expansion of the epidemic area of B. xylophilus in China [12,62,63]. In the future, the control of PWN will become more difficult due to the expansion of the distribution of the vector insect M. saltuarius and the southward migration of M. alternatus [64][65][66].…”

Section: Future Control Strategy For M Saltuarius Based On Model Pred...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Climate Change on the Habitat Suitability of Monochamus saltuarius Gebler (Coleoptera; Cerambycidae) and Its Natural Enemies in China

Zhang,

Zhou,

et al. 2023

Forests

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The longicorn beetle Monochamus saltuarius (Coleoptera; Cerambycidae) is an insect vector that transmits the pine wood nematode Bursaphelenchus xylophilus, a serious issue in pine forests in China, Japan, and South Korea. Dastarcus helophoroides and Scleroderma guani are effective in controlling M. saltuarius. However, the application of these parasites for the direct control of vector insects requires detailed analyses of the suitability of the selected natural enemies in potential pest areas, particularly under climate change. Based on species distribution records as well as the current and projected climate change trends up to 2050, we utilized an optimized Maxent algorithm to predict the potential distribution patterns of M. saltuarius and its natural enemies in China. Furthermore, we estimated Schoener’s D to quantify the overlap in adaptability between M. saltuarius and its natural enemies. The potentially suitable areas predicted under the current climate conditions were concentrated mainly in northeast and north China. Additional suitable areas were detected in central, eastern, northwestern, and southwestern China. Under future climate conditions, the suitable range of M. saltuarius gradually shifted southward, with a tendency to expand into high-altitude and colder regions, such as Sichuan, Qinghai, and Tibet. The potential distribution of the natural enemies D. helophoroides and S. guani continued to expand under climate change. A comparison of the appropriate habitats of M. saltuarius and natural enemy insects indicated that D. helophoroides is more suitable for initial biological control in north, northeast, and central China as well as certain northwest and coastal regions. S. guani could be prioritized for nationwide release, while joint control using both species may be effective in Liaoning, Hebei, and Tianjin provinces. These analyses demonstrate that future climate change is likely to exert adverse effects on the potential distribution of M. saltuarius but is favorable for the potential distributions of natural enemies. This study offers important insights into the effective control of M. saltuarius and provides an experimental basis for the utilization of natural enemies according to the characteristics of different regions.

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Potentially Suitable Geographical Area for Monochamus alternatus under Current and Future Climatic Scenarios Based on Optimized MaxEnt Model

Cited by 18 publications

References 53 publications

Response of Extremely Small Populations to Climate Change—A Case of Trachycarpus nanus in Yunnan, China

Response of Extremely Small Populations to Climate Change—A Case of Trachycarpus nanus in Yunnan, China

Climate Change Facilitates the Potentially Suitable Habitats of the Invasive Crop Insect Ectomyelois ceratoniae (Zeller)

Impact of Climate Change on the Habitat Suitability of Monochamus saltuarius Gebler (Coleoptera; Cerambycidae) and Its Natural Enemies in China

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