Poverty mapping based on first order dominance with an example from Mozambique

Abstract

We explore a novel first-order dominance (FOD) approach to poverty mapping and compare its properties to small-area estimation. The FOD approach uses census data directly, is straightforward to implement, is multidimensional allowing for a broad conception of welfare and accounts rigorously for welfare distributions in both levels and trends. An application to Mozambique highlights the value of the approach, including its advantages in the monitoring and evaluation of public expenditures. We conclude that the FOD approach to poverty mapping constitutes a useful addition to the toolkit of policy analysts.

Synthesis

“…The measured decline is more consistent with other analyses (e.g. Arndt, Hussain, Salvucci, Tarp, and sterdal 2016).…”

“…Despite this potential for different conclusions, in a comparison across thirty-eight countries Permanyer and Hussain (2015) find that the methodologies align closely with a correlation coefficient of 0.95. Arndt et al (2016b) similarly find high correlations using census data for Mozambique. For these analyses, the indicators and thresholds determining deprived and not deprived in each dimension, which both FOD and AF are obliged to specify, were the same.…”