Power sector investment implications of climate impacts on renewable resources in Latin America and the Caribbean

Silva, Silvia R. Santos da; Hejazi, Mohamad; Wild, Thomas; Binsted, Matthew; Miralles‐Wilhelm, Fernando; Patel, Pralit; Snyder, Abigail; Vernon, Chris R.

doi:10.1038/s41467-021-21502-y

Cited by 43 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 66 publications

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“…electricity generation are more prominent than positive changes, even for a very large increase in potential like in the high suitability case of solar PV. This is because GCAM imposes limitations to the deployment of wind and solar capacities to account for the added cost of managing the inherent intermittency of these resources (see Santos da Silva et al [3] for details on these 'intermittency' cost assumptions).…”

Section: Rcp26_cimentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Second, likely climate change impacts on intermittent renewables. In this context, recent model-based investigations on climate change impacts on the energy sector have just started to account for climate change impacts on intermittent renewables using the uncertain global RE potentials as model inputs [2,3]. This creates new challenges to the understanding of the future evolution of the energy system.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To date, few model-based projections of RE have accounted for climate impacts on wind and solar energy [2][3][4]. Among them, the recent study by Gernaat et al [2] proposes a novel approach.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The implications of uncertain renewable resource potentials for global wind and solar electricity projections

Silva

Iyer

Wild

et al. 2021

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Studies exploring long-term energy system transitions rely on resource cost-supply curves derived from estimates of renewable energy (RE) potentials to generate wind and solar power projections. However, estimates of RE potentials are characterized by large uncertainties stemming from methodological assumptions that vary across studies, including factors such as the suitability of land and the performance and configuration of technology. Based on a synthesis of modeling approaches and parameter values used in prior studies, we explore the implications of these uncertain assumptions for onshore wind and solar PV electricity generation projections globally using the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM). We show that variability in parametric assumptions related to land use (e.g., land suitability) are responsible for the most substantial uncertainty in both wind and solar generation projections. Additionally, assumptions about the average turbine installation density and turbine technology are responsible for substantial uncertainty in wind generation projections. Under scenarios that account for climate impacts on wind and solar energy, we find that these parametric uncertainties are far more significant than those emerging from differences in climate models and scenarios in a global assessment, but uncertainty surrounding climate impacts (across models and scenarios) have significant effects regionally, especially for wind. Our analysis suggests the need for studies focusing on long-term energy system transitions to account for this uncertainty.

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Section: Rcp26_cimentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The implications of uncertain renewable resource potentials for global wind and solar electricity projections

Silva

Iyer

Wild

et al. 2021

Environ. Res. Lett.

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“…Turner et al (2017) assessed climate impacts on hydropower and the consequences for global electricity supply investment needs. Binsted et al (2020) and Silva et al (2021) assessed stranded assets and power sector investments in the context of climate mitigation and impacts in Latin America and the Caribbean. Similarly, McCollum et al (2018) investigated the necessary energy investments to reach international climate goals by comparing output from GCAM and six other modeling frameworks.…”

Section: Statement Of Needmentioning

confidence: 99%

plutus: An R package to calculate electricity investments and stranded assets from the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM)

Zhao¹,

Binsted²,

Wild³

et al. 2021

JOSS

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plutus is an R package that post-processes outputs from the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM;Calvin et al., 2019) to calculate the power sector capital investment costs and stranded asset costs associated with GCAM projections of electricity generation by technology. GCAM is a market equilibrium model used to examine the dynamics of the coupled human-Earth system and the response of this system to global change, including socioeconomics, technology, climate, and policy. GCAM tracks electricity generation by technology and vintage over 32 geopolitical regions throughout the lifetime of each generating technology. plutus extends GCAM functionality by (1) estimating the foregone economic value of prematurely retired power plants as a result of economic-induced retirements compared to scheduled lifetimes; and (2) estimating the new installations and capital investments driven by future changes in economic, energy, agriculture, and land-use systems in GCAM. The concept and methodology for calculating electricity investments and stranded assets is detailed in Binsted et al. (2020) and Iyer et al. (2017). Zhao et al., (2021). plutus: An R package to calculate electricity investments and stranded assets from the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM).

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“…The resulting competition for land and water could have non-trivial implications for food security (Fujimori et al 2019). Climate change could sharpen these tradeoffs by reducing water supplies and renewable energy potential (e.g., hydropower, wind, and solar) in some regions of Argentina, with concomitant implications for electricity sector investment needs (Turner et al 2017;da Silva et al 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrated energy-water-land nexus planning in the Colorado River Basin (Argentina)

et al. 2021

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Integrated energy-water-land (EWL) planning promotes synergies and avoids conflicts in ways that sector-specific planning approaches cannot. Many important decisions that influence emerging EWL nexus issues are implemented at regional (e.g., large river basin, electricity grid) and sub-regional (e.g., small river basin, irrigation district) scales. However, actual implementation of integrated planning at these scales has been limited. Simply collecting and visualizing data and interconnections across multiple sectors and sub-regions in a single modeling platform is a unique endeavor in many regions. This study introduces and applies a novel approach to linking together multiple sub-regions in a single platform to characterize and visualize EWL resource use, EWL system linkages within and among sub-regions, and the EWL nexus implications of future policies and investments. This integrated planning methodology is applied in the water-stressed Colorado River Basin in Argentina, which is facing increasing demands for agricultural and fossil fuel commodities. Guided by stakeholders, this study seeks to inform basin planning activities by characterizing and visualizing (1) the basin’s current state of EWL resources, (2) the linkages between sectors within and among basin sub-regions, and (3) the EWL nexus implications of planned future agricultural development activities. Results show that water scarcity, driven in part by human demands that have historically reached 60% of total surface water supply, poses a substantial constraint to economic development in the basin. The Colorado basin has the potential to serve as a testbed for crafting novel and generalizable sub-regional EWL planning approaches capable of informing the EWL planning dialogue globally.

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Power sector investment implications of climate impacts on renewable resources in Latin America and the Caribbean

Cited by 43 publications

References 66 publications

The implications of uncertain renewable resource potentials for global wind and solar electricity projections

The implications of uncertain renewable resource potentials for global wind and solar electricity projections

plutus: An R package to calculate electricity investments and stranded assets from the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM)

Integrated energy-water-land nexus planning in the Colorado River Basin (Argentina)

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