PRC Assertiveness in the South China Sea: Measuring Continuity and Change, 1970–2015

Abstract

Why has the People's Republic of China (PRC) courted international opprobrium, alarmed its neighbors, and risked military conflict in pursuit of its claims over vast areas of the South China Sea? Answering this question depends on recognizing long-term patterns of continuity and change in the PRC's policy. A new typology of “assertive” state behaviors in maritime and territorial disputes, and original time-series events data covering the period from 1970 to 2015, shows that the key policy change—China's rapid administrative buildup and introduction of regular coercive behaviors—occurred in 2007, between two and five years earlier than most analysis has supposed. This finding disconfirms three common explanations for Beijing's assertive turn in maritime Asia: the Global Financial Crisis, domestic legitimacy issues, and the ascendancy of Xi Jinping. Focused qualitative case studies of four breakpoints identified in the data indicate that PRC policy shifts in 1973, 1987, and 1992 were largely opportunistic responses to favorable geopolitical circumstances. In contrast, the policy change observed from 2007 was a lagged effect of decisions taken in the 1990s to build specific capabilities designed to realize strategic objectives that emerged in the 1970s.

Studying Chinese Foreign Policy Narratives: Introducing the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Press Conferences Corpus

“…However, various incidents in late 2000s seemed to suggest that the era was coming to its end with the new approach being labelled as “assertive” [ 17 , 19 ]. Although evidence was initially inconclusive [ 12 , 23 , 25 ], shortly after Xi Jinping took over from Hu Jintao in 2012, it became clear that the new leader would make his growing power and influence felt domestically as well as internationally [ 60 ], in many respects abandoning the trajectories Deng Xiaoping introduced in late 1970s [ 42 ].…”

“…To demonstrate a more qualitatively oriented approach utilizing our dataset, we now focus on disputes concerning South China Sea and the change in official China’s discourse over the years 2002–2020. South China Sea is a particularly relevant example of the topic to study changes in Chinese foreign policy during the Hu and Xi eras, as it has been recognized as one of the key areas where the change from “low profile” diplomacy towards “assertiveness” was noticed [ 25 , compare with 12 , 52 ].…”

Does Multilateralism still Matter? ASEAN and the Arctic Council in Comparative Perspective

“…In this regard, no country has had greater territorial ambitions, or a greater willingness to pursue them assertively than the PRC. But while China has used a rather effective combination of economic inducements and outright intimidation to pursue its interests in the South China Sea (Chubb, 2020), its approach to the Arctic, where it has an even more tenuous connection, has been more subtle (Perreault, 2016). On the one hand, it is argued that China has been operating as a ‘norm entrepreneur’, by trying to change attitudes about who should have a say in determining the future development of the region (Lanteigne, 2017).…”

The effects of US–China competing strategies in Asia-Pacific on India and Pakistan rivalry in the South Asian region

“…Such Chinese assertion bears a combination of various modifiers such as "passive assertiveness," "non-confrontational assertiveness," militant assertiveness," "creeping assertiveness" etc. (Chubb, 2021). However, Andrew Chubb in recent scholarship develops a framework on rising China's assertiveness by it categorizing into at least four main types of "assertive actions", i.e.…”

“…However, Andrew Chubb in recent scholarship develops a framework on rising China’s assertiveness by it categorizing into at least four main types of “assertive actions”, i.e. 1) declarative, 2) demonstrative, 3) coercive, and 4) use of force, which depend on from what positions China and the US behave towards each other (Chubb, 2021: 86–91). The naming and framing of the Indo-Pacific is a step towards pivoting a similar goal where particularly India will have a growing strategic partnership with the US as a counterweight against China (Lalwani and Byrne, 2019; Li, 2020; Liu, 2020; Mukherjee, 2019).…”