Pre-site Characterization Risk Analysis for Commercial-Scale Carbon Sequestration

Abstract

This study develops a probability framework to evaluate subsurface risks associated with commercial-scale carbon sequestration in the Kevin Dome, Montana. Limited knowledge of the spatial distribution of physical attributes of the storage reservoir and the confining rocks in the area requires using regional data to estimate project risks during the pre-site characterization analysis. A set of integrated Monte Carlo simulations are used to assess four risk proxies: the CO2 injectivity, area of review (AoR), migration rate into confining rocks, and a monitoring strategy prior to detailed site characterization. Results show a reasonable likelihood of reaching the project goal of injecting 1 Mt in 4 years with a single injection well (>58%), increasing to >70% if the project is allowed to run for 5 years. The mean radius of the AoR, based on a 0.1 MPa pressure change, is around 4.8 km. No leakage of CO2 through the confining units is seen in any simulations. The computed CO2 detection probability suggests that the monitoring wells should be located at less than 1.2 km away from the injection well so that CO2 is likely to be detected within the time frame of the project. The scientific results of this study will be used to inform the detailed site characterization process and to provide more insight for understanding operational and technical risks before injecting CO2.

Chemical Flooding in Heavy-Oil Reservoirs: From Technical Investigation to Optimization Using Response Surface Methodology

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The Performance of Polymer Flooding in Heterogeneous Type II Reservoirs—An Experimental and Field Investigation

“…At present, the fall in oil prices has contributed to the fact that many EOR projects are facing cancellation or delay, but the tertiary techniques including CO 2 -EOR for improving the production of partially depleted reservoirs is still an attractive option. A survey in 2014 showed that miscible CO 2 floods yielded 292,735 bbls per day, which accounted for 38% of oil production for EOR processes in the USA [5][6][7][8][9][10]. The EOR potential evaluation, which assessed more than 200 onshore oilfields of 17 different worldwide oil reserved districts, indicates that China has great EOR potential [11].…”

Modeling 3-D permeability distribution in alluvial fans using facies architecture and geophysical acquisitions

“…The hydrofacies and hydraulic conductivity (K) distributions in alluvial fans are generally non-stationary (Weissmann et al, , 2013Anderson, 2007;Zhu et al, 2016a). Hence, the use of these methods may cause large characterization errors and add significant uncertainty to the predictions achieved by groundwater flow and contaminant transport models (Eggleston and Rojstaczer, 1998;Irving and Singha, 2010;Dai et al, 2014a). Zhu et al (2016a) adopted a local-stationary assumption by dividing the alluvial fan into three zones along the flow direction of the Chaobai River, China.…”