Precipitation assessment of a superensemble forecast over South‐East Asia

Mahmud, Mastura; Ross, Robert S.

doi:10.1017/s1350482705001660

Cited by 6 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…Over both land and water, NWP tropical precipitation estimates have been shown to have qualitative skill and adequate performance at capturing tropical rainfall amounts at monthly and seasonal scales. However, models have difficulty resolving the timing and magnitude of daily or even weekly convection (Adler et al, 2001;Mahmud and Ross, 2005;Dai, 2006;Sun et al, 2007;Xian et al, 2009).…”

Section: Satellite Precipitation Products In Seamentioning

confidence: 99%

Observing and understanding the Southeast Asian aerosol system by remote sensing: An initial review and analysis for the Seven Southeast Asian Studies (7SEAS) program

Reid¹,

Hyer²,

Johnson

et al. 2013

Atmospheric Research

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299

264

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Section: Satellite Precipitation Products In Seamentioning

confidence: 99%

Observing and understanding the Southeast Asian aerosol system by remote sensing: An initial review and analysis for the Seven Southeast Asian Studies (7SEAS) program

Reid¹,

Hyer²,

Johnson

et al. 2013

Atmospheric Research

Self Cite

299

264

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“…Satellite retrievals are frequently impinged by nearly ubiquitous cloud cover. This shortage of reliable data has resulted in a lack of quantitative knowledge of the aerosol life cycle in this region, which has led to uncertainty in forecasting aerosol properties and their participation in regional atmospheric processes (e.g., Adler et al, 2001;Mahmud and Ross, 2005;Dai, 2006;Sun et al, 2007;Xian et al, 2009).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of NAAPS-RA performance in Maritime Southeast Asia during CAMP²Ex

Edwards

Reid²,

Xian³

et al. 2022

Atmos. Chem. Phys.

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Abstract. Monitoring and modeling aerosol particle life cycle in Southeast Asia (SEA) is challenged by high cloud cover, complex meteorology, and the wide range of aerosol species, sources, and transformations found throughout the region. Satellite observations are limited, and there are few in situ observations of aerosol extinction profiles, aerosol properties, and environmental conditions. Therefore, accurate aerosol model outputs are crucial for the region. This work evaluates the Navy Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System Reanalysis (NAAPS-RA) aerosol optical thickness (AOT) and light extinction products using airborne aerosol and meteorological measurements from the Cloud, Aerosol, and Monsoon Processes Philippines Experiment (CAMP2Ex) conducted in 2019 during the SEA southwest monsoon biomass burning season. Modeled AOTs and extinction coefficients are compared to those retrieved with a high spectral resolution lidar (HSRL-2). Agreement between simulated and retrieved AOT (R2= 0.78, relative bias =-5 %, normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) = 48 %) and aerosol extinction coefficients (R2= 0.80, 0.81, and 0.42; relative bias = 3 %, −6 %, and −7 %; NRMSE = 47 %, 53 %, and 118 % for altitudes between 40–500, 500–1500, and >1500 m, respectively) is quite good considering the challenging environment and few opportunities for assimilations of AOT from satellites during the campaign. Modeled relative humidities (RHs) are negatively biased at all altitudes (absolute bias =-5 %, −8 %, and −3 % for altitudes <500 500–1500 and >1500 m, respectively), motivating interest in the role of RH errors in AOT and extinction simulations. Interestingly, NAAPS-RA AOT and extinction agreement with the HSRL-2 does not change significantly (i.e., NRMSE values do not all decrease) when RHs from dropsondes are substituted into the model, yet biases all move in a positive direction. Further exploration suggests changes in modeled extinction are more sensitive to the actual magnitude of both the extinction coefficients and the dropsonde RHs being substituted into the model as opposed to the absolute differences between simulated and measured RHs. Finally, four case studies examine how model errors in RH and the hygroscopic growth parameter, γ, affect simulations of extinction in the mixed layer (ML). We find NAAPS-RA overestimates the hygroscopicity of (i) smoke particles from biomass burning in the Maritime Continent (MC) and (ii) anthropogenic emissions transported from East Asia. This work mainly provides insight into the relationship between errors in modeled RH and simulations of AOT and extinction in a humid and tropical environment influenced by a myriad of meteorological conditions and particle types. These results can be interpreted and addressed by the modeling community as part of the effort to better understand, quantify, and forecast atmospheric conditions in SEA.

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“…Satellite retrievals are frequently impinged by nearly ubiquitous cloud cover. This shortage of reliable data has resulted in a lack of quantitative knowledge of the aerosol lifecycle in this region, which has trickled down into significant model errors and uncertainty in forecasting aerosol properties and their participation in regional atmospheric processes (e.g., Adler et al, 2001;Mahmud and Ross, 2005;Dai, 2006;Sun et al, 2007;Xian et al, 2009).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of NAAPS-RA performance in Maritime Southeast Asia during CAMP<sup>2</sup>Ex

Edwards

Reid²,

Xian³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Abstract. Monitoring and modeling aerosol particle lifecycle in Southeast Asia (SEA) is challenged by high cloud cover, complex meteorology, and the wide range of aerosol species, sources, and transformations found throughout the region. Satellite observations are limited, and there are few in situ observations of aerosol extinction profiles, aerosol properties, and environmental conditions. Therefore, accurate aerosol model outputs are crucial for the region. This work evaluates the Navy Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System Reanalysis (NAAPS-RA) aerosol optical thickness (AOT) and light extinction products using airborne aerosol and meteorological measurements from the Cloud, Aerosol, and Monsoon Processes Philippines Experiment (CAMP2Ex) in SEA. Modeled AOTs and extinction coefficients were compared to those retrieved with a High Spectral Resolution Lidar (HSRL-2). Correlations were highest for AOT in the mixed layer (AOTML; R2 = 0.83, bias = 0.00, root mean square error [RMSE] = 0.03) compared to total AOT (R2 = 0.68, bias = 0.01, RMSE = 0.14), although the correlations between the observations and 1° × 1° degree NAAPS-RA outputs were weaker in regions with strong gradients in aerosol properties, such as near areas of active convection. Correlations between simulated and retrieved aerosol extinction coefficients were highest from 145–500 m (R2 = 0.75, bias = 0.01 km−1, RMSE = 0.08 km−1) and decreased with increasing altitude (R2 = 0.69 and 0.26, bias = 0.00 and 0.00 km−1, RMSE = 0.09 and 0.00 km−1 for 500–1500 m and > 1500 m, respectively), which was likely a result of the use of bulk cloud mixing parameterizations. We also investigated the role of possible relative humidity (RH) errors in extinction simulations. Despite negative biases in modeled RH (−4.9, −7.7, and −2.3 % for altitudes < 500 m, 500–1500 m, and > 1500 m, respectively), AOT and extinction agreement with the HSRL-2 did not change significantly at any altitude when RHs from dropsondes were substituted into the model. Improvements may have been stunted due to errors in how NAAPS-RA modeled physics of particle hygroscopic growth, dry particle mass concentrations, and/or dry mass extinction efficiencies, especially when combined with AOT corrections from data assimilation. Specifically, the model overestimated the hygroscopicity of (i) smoke particles from biomass burning in the Maritime Continent (MC), and (ii) anthropogenic emissions transported from East Asia. This work provides insight into how certain environmental and microphysical properties influence AOT and extinction simulations, which can then be interpreted in the context of modeling global concentrations of particle mass and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN).

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Precipitation assessment of a superensemble forecast over South‐East Asia

Cited by 6 publications

References 18 publications

Observing and understanding the Southeast Asian aerosol system by remote sensing: An initial review and analysis for the Seven Southeast Asian Studies (7SEAS) program

Observing and understanding the Southeast Asian aerosol system by remote sensing: An initial review and analysis for the Seven Southeast Asian Studies (7SEAS) program

Assessment of NAAPS-RA performance in Maritime Southeast Asia during CAMP²Ex

Assessment of NAAPS-RA performance in Maritime Southeast Asia during CAMP<sup>2</sup>Ex

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Precipitation assessment of a superensemble forecast over South‐East Asia

Cited by 6 publications

References 18 publications

Observing and understanding the Southeast Asian aerosol system by remote sensing: An initial review and analysis for the Seven Southeast Asian Studies (7SEAS) program

Observing and understanding the Southeast Asian aerosol system by remote sensing: An initial review and analysis for the Seven Southeast Asian Studies (7SEAS) program

Assessment of NAAPS-RA performance in Maritime Southeast Asia during CAMP2Ex

Assessment of NAAPS-RA performance in Maritime Southeast Asia during CAMP&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt;Ex

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Assessment of NAAPS-RA performance in Maritime Southeast Asia during CAMP²Ex

Assessment of NAAPS-RA performance in Maritime Southeast Asia during CAMP<sup>2</sup>Ex