Precipitation Changes in a Climate With 2‐K Surface Warming From Large Ensemble Simulations Using 60‐km Global and 20‐km Regional Atmospheric Models

Fujita, Mikiko; Mizuta, Ryo; Ishii, Masayoshi; Endo, Hirokazu; Sato, Toru; Okada, Y.; Kawazoe, Sho; Sugimoto, Shiori; Ishihara, Koji; Watanabe, Shingo

doi:10.1029/2018gl079885

Cited by 82 publications

(54 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…Based on the 5km_HIST experiment, they clarified that the geographical boundaries of extremely heavy snowfall events caused by two typical patterns-a cold air outbreak and an extratropical cyclone-are more clearly defined than those of other snowfall events. As with Kawase et al (2018a), Sasai et al (2019) conducted dynamical downscaling from d4PDF20 in two future climates, assuming that the global mean temperatures are 2 K and 4 K warmer than those in the pre-industrial period (Mizuta et al 2017;Fujita et al 2019) (hereafter referred to as the 5km_2K and 5km_4K experiments, respectively). For 5km_2K and 5km_4K experiments, they selected two ensemble members from each sea surface temperature (SST) pattern in d4PDF, which has six SST patterns, and conducted a 31-year simulation for each ensemble member.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in extremely heavy and light snow-cover winters due to global warming over high mountainous areas in central Japan

Kawase

Yamazaki

Sugimoto

et al. 2020

Prog Earth Planet Sci

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To investigate future changes in snow cover and snowfall over mountainous areas in central Japan, we conducted regional climate projections using a high-resolution non-hydrostatic regional climate model (NHRCM) with 5 km and 1 km grid spacings. Boundary conditions are derived from the database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF) 20 km regional climate projections (d4PDF20). The d4PDF20 assumes two future climates when global mean surface air temperatures are approximately 2 K and 4 K warmer than in the preindustrial period. Experiments with 5 km grid spacing are conducted by NHRCM for 372 years in d4PDF20 in each climate. Experiments with 1 km grid spacing are performed focusing on 5 years with heavy, median, and light snow cover of mountainous areas in each climate. In the years with heavy snow cover in 2 K and 4 K warming climates, snowfall is enhanced from late December to February at more than 2000 m above sea level (mASL) in the northern parts of Japan's Northern Alps, resulting in heavy snow cover comparable to that in the present climate. Heavy daily snowfall remarkably increases due to global warming in the years with heavy snow cover. At low elevations below 500 mASL, snowfall decreases in all ranges of snowfall intensity in the 4 K warming climate, while the frequency of heavy daily snowfall increases in the 2 K warming climate. Precipitation is enhanced around the Japan-Sea Polarairmass Convergence Zone and the mountainous area facing the Sea of Japan, resulting in strengthened heavy snowfall at high elevations where the winter mean temperature is approximately − 10°C in the present climate. On the other hand, remarkable reductions in snow cover and snowfall are projected in years with light snow cover. Our results indicate that global warming causes heavy and light midwinter snowfalls at high elevations of Japan's Northern Alps that are more extreme than those in the present climate.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in extremely heavy and light snow-cover winters due to global warming over high mountainous areas in central Japan

Kawase

Yamazaki

Sugimoto

et al. 2020

Prog Earth Planet Sci

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“…Here, +2 K denotes the 2 K warming of the globally averaged surface air temperature relative to the preindustrial level in the context of the Paris Agreement. See Mizuta et al (2017) and Fujita et al (2019) for a detailed experimental design. The ensembles are generated by adding small perturbations to the observed (PAST) or detrended (+2 K) SSTs.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Frequency Change of Clear-Air Turbulence over the North Pacific under 2 K Global Warming – Ensemble Projections Using a 60-km Atmospheric General Circulation Model

Watanabe

Fujita

Kawazoe

et al. 2019

Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan

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“…To meet this goal, the Japanese cabinet decided to plan policies for climate change adaptation with an outline report entitled "National Plan for Adaptation to the Impacts of Climate Change in November 2015. " Under this background, a climate science and social implementation program of MEXT called SI-CAT (from FY2015 to FY2019) decided to conduct further future climate simulations at a warming level of +2 K as a subset of d4PDF (Fujita et al 2019). Adaptation or countermeasures against global warming are not only governmental issues but also social problems.…”

Section: A Brief Historymentioning

confidence: 99%

d4PDF: large-ensemble and high-resolution climate simulations for global warming risk assessment

Ishii

Mori

2020

Prog Earth Planet Sci

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A large-ensemble climate simulation database, which is known as the database for policy decision-making for future climate changes (d4PDF), was designed for climate change risk assessments. Since the completion of the first set of climate simulations in 2015, the database has been growing continuously. It contains the results of ensemble simulations conducted over a total of thousands years respectively for past and future climates using high-resolution global (60 km horizontal mesh) and regional (20 km mesh) atmospheric models. Several sets of future climate simulations are available, in which global mean surface air temperatures are forced to be higher by 4 K, 2 K, and 1.5 K relative to preindustrial levels. Nonwarming past climate simulations are incorporated in d4PDF along with the past climate simulations. The total data volume is approximately 2 petabytes. The atmospheric models satisfactorily simulate the past climate in terms of climatology, natural variations, and extreme events such as heavy precipitation and tropical cyclones. In addition, data users can obtain statistically significant changes in mean states or weather and climate extremes of interest between the past and future climates via a simple arithmetic computation without any statistical assumptions. The database is helpful in understanding future changes in climate states and in attributing past climate events to global warming. Impact assessment studies for climate changes have concurrently been performed in various research areas such as natural hazard, hydrology, civil engineering, agriculture, health, and insurance. The database has now become essential for promoting climate and risk assessment studies and for devising climate adaptation policies. Moreover, it has helped in establishing an interdisciplinary research community on global warming across Japan.

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Precipitation Changes in a Climate With 2‐K Surface Warming From Large Ensemble Simulations Using 60‐km Global and 20‐km Regional Atmospheric Models

Cited by 82 publications

References 26 publications

Changes in extremely heavy and light snow-cover winters due to global warming over high mountainous areas in central Japan

Changes in extremely heavy and light snow-cover winters due to global warming over high mountainous areas in central Japan

Frequency Change of Clear-Air Turbulence over the North Pacific under 2 K Global Warming – Ensemble Projections Using a 60-km Atmospheric General Circulation Model

d4PDF: large-ensemble and high-resolution climate simulations for global warming risk assessment

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