Precipitation extremes over La Plata Basin – Review and new results from observations and climate simulations

Cavalcanti, Iracema F. A.; Carril, Andrea F.; Penalba, Olga Clorinda; Grimm, Alice M.; Menéndez, Claudio G.; Sánchez, Enrique; Cherchi, Annalisa; Sörensson, Anna A.; Robledo, Federico Ariel; Rivera, Juan Antonio; Pántano, Vanesa Cristina; Bettolli, María Laura; Zaninelli, Pablo G.; Zamboni, L.; Tedeschi, Renata G.; Domínguez, Marta; Ruscica, Romina; Flach, Rafaela

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.01.028

Cited by 90 publications

(63 citation statements)

References 97 publications

(124 reference statements)

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“…Precipitation and temperature extreme events registered long-term 20 increases since the 1960s as well as Paraná River flow after mid-1970 (Haylock et al, 2006;Seneviratne et al, 2012;Cavalcanti et al, 2015;Carril et al, 2016;Scardilli et al, 2017). Huang et al (2005) and Jaques-Coper and Garreaud (2015) have suggested that those changes were influenced by interdecadal variability in tropical Pacific SSTs.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Interannual-to-multidecadal Hydroclimate Variability and its Sectoral Impacts in northeastern Argentina

Lovino¹,

Müller²,

Müller³

et al. 2018

Preprint

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Interannual-to-multidecadal Hydroclimate Variability and its Sectoral Impacts in northeastern Argentina

Lovino¹,

Müller²,

Müller³

et al. 2018

Preprint

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“…With regard to the modelling of the current climate and the evaluation of projections of the effects of climate change on the basin, several studies were conducted by assembling different emission scenarios (RCP 8.5, RCP 6.0, RCP 4.5, and RCP 2.6) with regional climate models (RCM, e.g., REGCM3, RegCM4, Eta, RCA, MM5, and REMO) driven by global climate models (GCM, e.g., HadGEM2, HadCM3, MIROC5, EC5OM, ECHAM5, GFDL, and MPI) (e.g., [3,11,13,[21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40]). In order to assess a wide range of uncertainty sources, in recent years many studies have followed an ensemble modelling approach.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The most ambitious collaborative initiative for producing ensembles of RCM simulations over the La Plata Basin was performed within the CLARIS-LPB Project (a Europe-South America network for climate change assessment and impact studies [42,43]). A suite of seven coordinated RCM simulations over South America (with an approximate grid resolution of 50 km) driven by both the ERA-interim [44] reanalysis and a set of GCMs were evaluated [34,[36][37][38][39][40]42]. Carril et al [36] found relatively good agreement for the annual precipitation average cycle over the La Plata Basin by applying an ensemble of RCMs.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Concerning the future climate, several models showed, in general, a precipitation increase over the La Plata Basin region [29][30][31]33,34,37]. According to Menéndez et al [37], for the period 2071-2100, the seasonal mean precipitation (DJF) from the CLARIS LPB ensemble under the SRES A1B scenario is projected to increase between 20% and 40% over the southern LPB.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…They were categorized by type and ease of use, including meteorology, soil moisture, hydrology, remote sensing and modelled indices. The SPI drought index (Standardized Precipitation Index [63]) is widely used worldwide, and it has been applied in LPB [7,9,22,34]. By applying the SPI3 and using a CMIP5 multi-model ensemble, Penalba and Rivera [22] analysed future changes in drought characteristics over southern South America, finding that the occurrence of droughts will be more frequent during the 21st century, with shorter durations and greater severities.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Analysis of Current and Future SPEI Droughts in the La Plata Basin Based on Results from the Regional Eta Climate Model

Sordo‐Ward

Bejarano

Iglesias

et al. 2017

Water

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Abstract:We identified and analysed droughts in the La Plata Basin (divided into seven sub-basins) for the current period and estimated their expected evolution under future climate projections for the periods 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2099. Future climate projections were analysed from results of the Eta Regional Climate Model (grid resolution of approximately 10 km) forced by the global climate model HadGEM2-ES over the La Plata basin, and considering a RCP4.5 emission scenario. Within each sub-basin, we particularly focused our drought analyses on croplands and grasslands, due to their economic relevance. The three-month Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI3) was used for drought identification and characterization. Droughts were evaluated in terms of time (percentage of time from the total length of each climate scenario), space (percentage of total area), and severity (SPEI3 values) of cells characterized by cropland and grassland for each sub-basin and climate scenario. Drought-severity-area-frequency curves were developed to quantitatively relate the frequency distribution of drought occurrence to drought severity and area. For the period 2011-2040, droughts dominate the northern sub-basins, whereas alternating wet and short dry periods dominate the southern sub-basins. Wet climate spread from south to north within the La Plata Basin as more distant future scenarios were analysed, due to both a greater number of wet periods and fewer droughts. The area of each sub-basin affected by drought in all climate scenarios was highly varied temporally and spatially. The likelihood of the occurrence of droughts differed significantly between the studied cover types in the Lower Paraguay sub-basin, being higher for cropland than for grassland. Mainly in the Upper Paraguay and in the Upper Paraná basins the climate projections for all scenarios showed an increase of moderate and severe droughts over large regions dedicated to crops and grasses. On the other hand, for the near future, the Lower Uruguay and the River Plata basins showed a decrease of drought severity compared to the current period. Projections suggest an increase in competition among uses in these regions and the need for a potential relocation of certain crops from the northern regions towards cooler regions located in the centre and south. Further research should consider other climate projections and perform high spatial resolution studies in localized areas.

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Assessing how accumulated precipitation and long dry sequences impact the soil water storage

Pántano

Penalba

Spescha

et al. 2017

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Precipitation or no precipitation persistent over time often became extreme weather conditions with greater regional economic impact. The temporal and spatial variability of these variables, together with the evapotranspiration, is crucial in the east‐northeast of Argentina, where rain‐fed agricultural production is carried out. In this work, the frequency of precipitation was studied from dry spells and complemented with an analysis of the accumulated precipitation and evapotranspiration. In particular, dry sequences longer than 15 days, return period and severity, were the focus of this study. Finally, the impact of the amount and frequency of precipitation on soil water storage was assessed through a decadal analysis. The region of study is characterized by northeast‐southwest gradient in accumulated precipitation and east–west gradient in winter long dry sequences. During summer, higher and more frequent precipitations (lower probability of long dry sequences and lower return period of 15 days and severity) were presented whereas the opposite was found in winter. However, the stations located to the west presented the highest probability of long dry sequences with higher severity and lower accumulated precipitation. This result highlights the vulnerability of the agriculture activity in the western stations. Regarding the impact of long dry sequences over soil water storage, the seasonality of evapotranspiration is also involved. The impact is stronger during austral summer because of higher values of evapotranspiration and it is lower during winter, in spite of the higher probability of long sequences. Decadal analysis suggested that soil water storage responds to precipitation amount or frequency depending on the magnitude of the anomalies. In this sense, the impact of precipitation over soil water storage depends on how it is distributed.

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Precipitation extremes over La Plata Basin – Review and new results from observations and climate simulations

Cited by 90 publications

References 97 publications

Interannual-to-multidecadal Hydroclimate Variability and its Sectoral Impacts in northeastern Argentina

Interannual-to-multidecadal Hydroclimate Variability and its Sectoral Impacts in northeastern Argentina

Analysis of Current and Future SPEI Droughts in the La Plata Basin Based on Results from the Regional Eta Climate Model

Assessing how accumulated precipitation and long dry sequences impact the soil water storage

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